Shortage Histories

[chkunz]

I have been reloading for about 55 years. During that time there have been about 4 to 5 significant shortages of components like we are now experiencing. It seems like each one gets deeper and lasts longer. It would be interesting to have some data on this to better characterize the length and severity of the shortages but all I have is memory which is not a good substitute for data and facts.

Can any of you provide any facts or data that characterizes the date, duration and severity of past shortages.?

 

[357Mag]

I have been reloading for about 55 years. During that time there have been about 4 to 5 significant shortages of components like we are now experiencing. It seems like each one gets deeper and lasts longer. It would be interesting to have some data on this to better characterize the length and severity of the shortages but all I have is memory which is not a good substitute for data and facts.

Can any of you provide any facts or data that characterizes the date, duration and severity of past shortages.?

CHK -

Howdy !

Well....... one of the most recent ones was the hoarding of components in-advance of & during the last Democrat president's tenure; fer sher. What we are seegeing now is basically phase II of that, due to our having another Democrat president. IHMO - This was / is a causitive factor, more than anything else.

I Dk if they could make enough components for us to see any improvement in supply levels, should the current president or more-likely VP get advanced into another term(s).

IMHO


With regards,
357Mag

 

[K22]

I don't have any specific data but the first "panic" I remember was when Clinton was elected president. There was some initial stock piling of ammo, reloading components and to a lesser extent firearms but it all proved to be unnecessary for most of us. I remember some short-term shortages, but I never had to cut back on my shooting because of supplies shortages.

If I remember correctly, the only item seriously impacted under Clinton was the so called "assault weapons ban," which was not renew with Bush 2 took office.

Then came the Obama years and the panic was repeated again. I remember some short-term shortages but again, I never had to cut back on my shooting because of supplies shortages. There were some issues with rimfire cartridge shortages for a while.

But this current supply issue has a different feel to it and has lasted a longer than any that I can remember. Maybe I'm wrong but this one seems to be real and possibly staged to continue for some time.

 

[jelenko]

I have been reloading for about 55 years. During that time there have been about 4 to 5 significant shortages of components like we are now experiencing. It seems like each one gets deeper and lasts longer. It would be interesting to have some data on this to better characterize the length and severity of the shortages but all I have is memory which is not a good substitute for data and facts.

Can any of you provide any facts or data that characterizes the date, duration and severity of past shortages.?

Maybe there's an association of ammo manufacturers? They might have history on unit production and unit sales orders. If such a place exists, the information should be available through FOIA.

Also, the revenue and backlog in $'s would be available from the Dept of Commerce. They keep track of that at a fairly fine level for all US producers and service providers.

 

[snert]

Then of course in 1942 we couldn't even buy a car...or meat...and brass and aluminum cans made airplanes an 50Cal M2...

 

[jackson1]

Been a handloader for 45 plus years. The first time I realized there was a shortage was during the Obama years. That said, with some searching I could meet my needs. The current round of shortages is much deeper and widespread. I learned and prepared and unlike many of my fellow shooters I have not felt any pain. I fear the war in Ukraine may have further devastating effects on the hobby. I coach a local high school trap team and am worried about next year. Have a fine group of shooters and parents and have been able to cover any shortfalls with my personal inventory, but that has its limits. History can give us clues, but each shortage has its own personality. My truck has habit of not being able to pass a gun store without entering the parking lot, but today it is just for informational purposes. I am seeing no end in sight, compared to my poor memory of the good old days. My wish is that my fellow shooters could obtain their needs and wants at reasonable prices.

 

[SKWERLZ]

The Obummer shortage was the first one I’d call bad.
This one was certainly worsened by the plandemic and riots!
Still a million plus guns per month being sold.

 

[bsekf]

The election of a Dem President triggers a shortage, and each shortage gets longer, and the outcome is higher prices. This time it looks like REALLY high prices. I believe the anti's have finally figured it out, control the ammo with high prices and shortage and you control the guns. The shortage is easing, but many have been driven out by the high prices. I doubt trap shooting will ever return to its previous level.

 

[tominboise]

The first one I remember was a primer shortage during the Clinton admin. I lived in Seattle at the time and remember guys buying cases of ammo, uzi's and AR's when the AWB was coming. I took a trip to Idaho and found primers. I am still using some of the rifle primers I bought during that trip.

 

[CharlieNC]

Component shortage severity correlates to gas price, ie who is president.

 

[redrockranger]

The first one I remember was a primer shortage during the Clinton admin. I lived in Seattle at the time and remember guys buying cases of ammo, uzi's and AR's when the AWB was coming. I took a trip to Idaho and found primers. I am still using some of the rifle primers I bought during that trip.

Looks like you never returned to Seattle ?

 

[wkdickinson]

IMO much of the current shortage is due to the number of "new" gun owners over the last several years. When you buy your first gun you definitely will buy ammo, lots of it. So all of that volume is incremental to the traditional market. Previous to this shortage manufacturing capacity was matched reasonably well with market requirements. Now with all of the incremental demand, the manufacturing capability isn't nearly adequate.

As discussed here many times, the cost to build new manufacturing capacity is staggering (especially primers and powder), then once the demand has been met, what do they do with that over capacity. Not a good situation for any business. I personally do not believe there is any sort of conspiracy here. Component manufactures are running "balls-to-the-wall" and are selling everything they can make. If they could make more they would, because they are in the business to make money and more sales means more profit, particularly at today's price levels.

The real question, which I think most of us know the answer to, is why the huge increase in gun sales, especially to first time buyers (people who never thought they would ever purchase a gun) - all you have to do is watch the news.

 

[MGYSGT]

Only shortages I can remember and I have been reloading since the 60's have been Clinton, Obama and Obiden. Other than that, none. I think the reason this one is so bad, is that those who remember the last one, stocked up ( I am one of them) and the supply chain hasn't caught up. That and the fact the distributers are messing with the stockpiles.

 

[Evan]

I think the first one I'm aware of was right after Clinton in the spring of 93. The next was spring of 09, right after Obama. The buying frenzy started around the election but the shortage was after. Both seemed to be alleviated by the following spring, with full availability within 2 years, and then an oversupply and heavy sales at 3 years out. Contrary to most here, I don't think this one is much more prolonged than the others. Supplies are showing up regularly now, and we may see a glut within the next year that results in heavy sales again. Both the "Obama shortage" and this one share a characteristic that was not as present with Clinton: a recessive bear market.

 

[GLO123]

Clinton shortage
Obummer shortage
Biden shortage
not seeing a pattern here…

 

[Iowa Fox]

Mom and Dad gave me a reloader for Christmas in 1963. My old uncle who was a pioneer to speak early reloader gave me a lecture. "Get stocked up on components" and stay stocked up He then told me of the shortages he experienced in his time at it even before WW11. I never forgot it.

 

[Brians356]

the only item seriously impacted under Clinton was the so called "assault weapons ban," which was not renew with Bush 2 took office.

Actually the 1994 AWB "sunsetted" as designed after 10 years, and by that time the Republicans held majorities in both houses of Congress, thanks in large part to the energization of gun-owning voters by passage of the AWB.
-

 

[john 800]

Ok, here is one thing that I would like to point out that I have seen but I feel gets forgotten all to often. Even under normal or best of times at least in my reloading time in the last 15 years, you can not expect to walk into cabellas or scheels and have your choice of powders and primers. Yes there will be something other than primer shelves filled with beef jerky but even in good times the components we see are an afterthought of loaded ammo. Even in good times I can not add every component i want in my cart on most online vendors like i want to save shipping and hazmat fees, usually something is out of stock. This is why I have do e the best I can to stock up, I don’t feel like it takes much extra panic to create a shortage of something that are leftovers anyway.

 

[Intell]

Unfortunately bullets and primers will probably be the least of our worries after another year of “Team Clown”.
The way things are going we will be living the Real great depression soon, and that thing in the 30s will be seen as not so bad after all.
I hope I’m wrong for all our sake.