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Powder lots,or?

We were blessed with some good weather today, so I got the itch to shoot a few development rds in a new 223. I loaded enough for 4 three shot groups in 2/10 increments up to where I thought I should be stopping for the initial test. All loads were well short where I thought max would be, and went about as well as I expecting and the last group made one tiny hole.

I almost stopped there, but the wind was going to be almost as good so I loaded that charge again and at 0.003 seating depths on either side of it. Now when I came home and loaded these I was at the end of a bottle of powder, so I mixed the remaining 1/4 cup of powder into my new (different lot) and it shot terrible with that load at all three depths. I seem to always lay down some killer groups in load development that I can't back up the next time around, and I can make no sense out of that and trudge on till I find what I need. Could a lot change open a group near an inch?
 
Varget.
The non repeatable tiny groups thing is what baffles me in development. In this case the different lot of powder contributes I'm sure, but to what extent. This seems to happen on almost every rifle I develop a load for.... even out of the same jug. When I see a group in the 0's like today or the 1's turn into a .7 or .9 or worse I'm at a loss as to why.

I get excited at the thought of an easy development when I see that, and it usually lets me down next time out. Here's the target. Top row is going up 2/10 at a time. Bottom row is the same charge as the top right group. left group is the same as above and was shot with a fowled cold bore and the next two are 0.003 in , and 0.006 in from that from left to right. I was wrong about loading on either side of it. 100yd target.
 

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When you can buy your powder in larger quantities all in the same lot, maybe a couple 8 lb jugs. Then develop the loads to that. The same with brass and bullets.
 
maybe the wind blew one in ?
honestly the 3 prior groups do not indicate a one hole group coming up.

I wish I knew.... The first groups were fired in a 4 mph wind, and the bottom row an hr later in about 6 mph wind. All I have for a wind flag is a piece of surveyors ribbon, but I try to shoot groups in like conditions. As far as blowing a shot into a group I would think it would be harder to get 3 in one hole by accident , but ..... as I said it also has happened to me during development in the last few guns I worked a load up in and I don't know why ?

As far as the powder goes I also believe I was crunching powder more with the new lot. I say this because I could hear/feel it, but I also saw trying to affect my seating depth.
 
" This seems to happen out of every rifle I develop" . "Even out of the same jug ".....

Think I might be looking for another cause for the inconsistency , Groovy . Something in brass prep , perhaps . Or a scale issue . Loads from the same bottle of powder are usually pretty consistent , if measured correctly . Could be that the scale is drifting . When I'm doing load development ; I re-weigh every load twice , put it in the case , and even go back and dump one or two back in the pan to re-weigh them . Just to be sure . Yup ! I'm severely OCD . :)
 
I had a lot of Varget that shot very good groups. Switched to another lot and had to start over searching for a charge. Now I buy it in 8 lb. jugs and avoid those problems. I'll bet Varget isn't the only one that changes when you change lots.
 
My Varget lots haven't strayed enough to change my go to 223 load over the last few yrs, but maybe I got lucky. I trust my prep and reloading skills, but I did prep the brass for the bottom row right before loading it yesterday. The cases for the first test had been prepped for a few months, so perhaps I had a different tension on those?

I suck at reading targets, but to me it wasn't looking too hateful up until that point. Group #2 looked decent thru the scope and later measured .293 . So, just like anyone else would be... on group #4 I was trying to will that last shot in that hole, and it went. Seeing that exact load open up 12x an hr later is the mystery. I understand that charge isn't where I need to be, but how could it print that well?

This is the first go with this bullet, and the rifle had exactly 16 rds thru it before I started. I might just put it on hold till I get the hotter powder that was suggested so I'm not fighting seating depth by crunching powder, start over, and use the Varget for my other bullet.
 
I've worked up a lot of loads in .223 bolt rifles with heavy bullets and doing the testing in 4 to 6 mph wind is not something I'd recommend, wind flags or not. Starting with the more obvious, I'd suggest shooting two or three consecutive groups with either of those two loads that gave you the one-hole groups above. I think you're going to find that you can't maintain that level of precision for three consecutive groups, suggesting the load isn't yet where you want it to be. Like others have suggested, the target isn't showing the expected pattern from a load that is close to tuning in. My guess is that it's not the powder at the bottom of the jug, although that could be wrong. If that is the culprit, it should show up in the velocity data. Do you have velocity numbers to compare with the previous load with that powder when it was shooting better?
 
There is only 1 one hole group pictured (top rt), sorry if I mislead anyone . The bottom right hole is a single fowler shot before shooting the top row. I didn't clean the gun after shooting the top row, and I didn't shoot a cold bore shot ( an hr later) before shooting the bottom row. The bottom left group is the same load/seating depth as the one hole group (top rt), and the other two are moving in 0.003 at a time. The best group on paper literally turned into the worst group on the paper an hr later.

I have no velocity numbers before or aft as I don't own a chrono, and this is the first go around with this gun, powder, and bullet. The Norma cases I'm using have less capacity than the beat Lapua brass I have on hand, so that isn't helping with this combo, but I had the itch to shoot, and a warm 4mph is the best day we've had in awhile.
 
you say you can hear the powder crunch and feel it crunching when seating the bullet... I would measure cbto on them and see how consistent they are coming out of the press... your seating depth may be all over the place when crunching powder... personally never did like doing that... always found a powder that would give 90 to 95% case fill...
 
Sorry, but I'm not sure what you mean by that. I did notice some mirage yesterday, and thought it weird because it was kinda in the shade.
I've learned that my home range is susceptible to sneaky mirage that moves intermittently. It can move my point of impact by more than 1/2" when it boils up. Just a reason why an accurate gun can seem inaccurate from one day to the next.
 
I didn't notice the seating depth varying on the one hole load the first time and I checked after hearing crunching. The second row was shot with the new lot, and I feel it was crunching worse this time both audibly and by touch of my press handle. Seating depths were definitely being affected on these, even the .003 and .006 longer loads and I made sure they were all right before shooting them. Ned had already suggested I try a faster powder to address my mismatched combo, but it's out of stock locally unless I want to pay 40 bucks for a pound. I do have some H4198 I could try, but I don't have any data for it in this app.
 

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