When the material properties are factored in the complexity goes up exponentially. Distributed forces along a rotating bullet of a given construction is where the material scientists come in and I lose my steam. I’m getting too old for differential equations!
I did calculate the total energy for both forward motion and rotation using a 55g 6mm bullet
Forward: 1490J @ 914.4m/s (3000fps)
2648J @ 1219m/s (4000fps)
Rotational: 4.19J @ 150,000RPM
16.75J @ 300,000RPM
So you are 100% correct that the forward kinetic energy dominates the rotational....but the rotational energy will send fragments out radially with 4x the force (when RPM doubles) once impact occurs. So the Fragment dispersion cone should be greater and dump more of that forward kinetic energy over a larger area.
Had to dust off the calculator! Feel free to check my math, the conversions can always bite you.