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My Prediction on the Availability of Supplies

Every day, I see more and more supplies, on the market, some of which are selling for slightly above normal costs. Lately I have bought N133 powder for $10.00 above last years price. Expensive, but not near what it sold for a few months ago.

I shoot Wolf 22LR target match in one of my rimfire rifle rifles. It is now available for $95.00 a brick. Again a bit higher but not that bad. There are now hundreds of sights selling 22LR. Many are still high, but many are with reach of the average shooter.

Brass is now plentiful and primers, while still at least three times normal, at least they can be bought. Bullets are there but not many choices as to weight.

I believe the hoarders have stopped buying as much as they were. They have now stockpiled all they can afford or want. There are many sellers who have refused to gouge the public and while they don't always have product in stock they are forcing the market to go down in price. those who sell at absorbent prices are now sitting on stock they can't seem to sell. Look at Ammo Seek. There are now five full pages of 22LR. Hodgdon is now selling directly to the consumer. Grief and Sons are selling at prices that are tolerable when the have stock. Even Midway USA is limiting powder to 2 pounds at a time. And then there is Blue Collar Reloading. What ever they have in stock is the same price as it was last year.

Most folks are now refusing to fork out outlandish money, which is driving up availability and lowering prices. Furthermore, we the buying public are beginning to realize we don't need more of what we already have on hand.

Three months from now, prices should be much better.

This is my prediction and I may be wrong. There are over 50,000 members here. Supposed we all just sat on our hands for a while.
 
I might disagree only to say that It does look like things
are leveling off except for primers. The door could swing
both ways with no primers in the distribution pipeline.
I can also see a big catch 22. I will remain uneasy until
I see primers at a LGS or places like Sportsman's ware-
house, stocked. The shelves are still bare. Primers are
the key in this cycle of events.
 
I don’t particularly like either term. I just meant that most of us stocked up enough to ride this out for quite a while.
I started the winter out with enough supplies to shoot 8 or 9 matches with no practice, then I found stuff local, now I can go about a year and a half. Practices have been cut due to rain and vacation, but I can practice about once a month.
 
I wonder if Laurie has seen this thread and if our brothers
across the pond have any issues with shipments of Russian
or Chech primers. How are our friends in Canada being
supplied ??
 
Here in Finland we have CCI/Fed/Win/Magtech/Remington primers available. There has not been shortage on primers but prices have went up from 49€/1k to 79€/1k.
In bullets we have had shortages on US made bullets (Sierra/Hornady/Nosler) but not for a longer periods.
And as i have mentioned, we do have more than enough Vihtavuori powders, Lapua/Sako bullets and Sako/Norma/Lapua factory ammo and brass.
 
Nothing is stabilized around these parts yet. While I do want to believe Nick I don't think anything will be readily available until well after Biden is out of office. His constant remarks of "gun Ban" or "Gun Legislation" or "Common Sense Gun Law" will keep the fear ramped up.
 
I have watched with interest the statement made regarding the "shortages" of ammo and components this past 8-10 months. Two things make me skeptical of the usual pat answer that it is hoarders and profiteers who are responsible for the bare shelves. One, I live in a fairly small town named Lewiston in Idaho. It is a "shooting community" with few equals It is small enough that I drive by all the usual outlets for ammo and components, every day. I have not seen the lines each morning outside these outlets like I did during the Obama panic buying, and I haven't seen the usual profiteers hanging out at the facilities the morning after the usual weekly shipments arrive. Two, I live two blocks away from two CCI/Speer/Federal (Vista Outdoors) facilities that manufacture ammo and components, including primers. I have lived here for 7 years. This past 8-10 months, I have observed a lack of activity at both factories. Very few trucks being loaded. Only one forklift moving around the docks, if at all. Few if any cars parked in the employee parking lots. Facilities closed on the weekends. Facilities closed in the evenings. All of that, in spite of the protestations by the corporate CEO that Vista Outdoors is working overtime to produce! (My governor turned down an extension of the federal unemployment benefits so that is not responsible for a lack of willing workers). As an added puzzlement, I drive up to Dale's, about 40 miles upriver from here, near Kamiah, to check his shelves from time to time. The reason I do so is Dale's is far enough out in the middle of nowhere that he is not so vulnerable to hoarders and profiteers coming in to clean his shelves on a regular basis. Nevertheless, the shelves have been bare. It is a small shop and the owner is known to be scrupulously honest. When questioned, he said simply, he has had everything on backorder for months and nothing is coming in. (I have also been on the road quite a bit between here and the mid-west. I have observed no shortage of truck traffic on Interstates 70, 80 and 90, nor any shortage of them on Idaho State highways either, so I don't believe it is a lack of transport that is responsible.) So, my thought is, if it is hoarders and profiteers responsible, where are they buying it if the usual retail outlets are not even receiving it? I am not prone to conspiracy theories. Still, we have noticed other industries that appear to curtail production to manipulate supply as a means of forcing retail prices up. For instance the oil and gas industry. I can't help but wonder if the ammo and component industry is not guilty of creating contrived shortages to take massive profits, and I wonder if we would be having this problem at all if our asleep-at -the -switch government at State and federal levels sought to enforce the Sherman Anti-Trust Act against those who seek to fix prices. Just my thoughts on the current state of the industry.
 
I have watched with interest the statement made regarding the "shortages" of ammo and components this past 8-10 months. Two things make me skeptical of the usual pat answer that it is hoarders and profiteers who are responsible for the bare shelves. One, I live in a fairly small town named Lewiston in Idaho. It is a "shooting community" with few equals It is small enough that I drive by all the usual outlets for ammo and components, every day. I have not seen the lines each morning outside these outlets like I did during the Obama panic buying, and I haven't seen the usual profiteers hanging out at the facilities the morning after the usual weekly shipments arrive. Two, I live two blocks away from two CCI/Speer/Federal (Vista Outdoors) facilities that manufacture ammo and components, including primers. I have lived here for 7 years. This past 8-10 months, I have observed a lack of activity at both factories. Very few trucks being loaded. Only one forklift moving around the docks, if at all. Few if any cars parked in the employee parking lots. Facilities closed on the weekends. Facilities closed in the evenings. All of that, in spite of the protestations by the corporate CEO that Vista Outdoors is working overtime to produce! (My governor turned down an extension of the federal unemployment benefits so that is not responsible for a lack of willing workers). As an added puzzlement, I drive up to Dale's, about 40 miles upriver from here, near Kamiah, to check his shelves from time to time. The reason I do so is Dale's is far enough out in the middle of nowhere that he is not so vulnerable to hoarders and profiteers coming in to clean his shelves on a regular basis. Nevertheless, the shelves have been bare. It is a small shop and the owner is known to be scrupulously honest. When questioned, he said simply, he has had everything on backorder for months and nothing is coming in. (I have also been on the road quite a bit between here and the mid-west. I have observed no shortage of truck traffic on Interstates 70, 80 and 90, nor any shortage of them on Idaho State highways either, so I don't believe it is a lack of transport that is responsible.) So, my thought is, if it is hoarders and profiteers responsible, where are they buying it if the usual retail outlets are not even receiving it? I am not prone to conspiracy theories. Still, we have noticed other industries that appear to curtail production to manipulate supply as a means of forcing retail prices up. For instance the oil and gas industry. I can't help but wonder if the ammo and component industry is not guilty of creating contrived shortages to take massive profits, and I wonder if we would be having this problem at all if our asleep-at -the -switch government at State and federal levels sought to enforce the Sherman Anti-Trust Act against those who seek to fix prices. Just my thoughts on the current state of the industry.
If that were the case why would Vista even attempt to restart operations at Remington? If you have a 1 Billion dollar backlog of ammo orders you don’t curtail production. I’m a VSTO shareholder and I read their SEC filings and listen to their earnings conference calls and have never heard them discuss reducing production. In fact, in answers to questions they have indicated the exact opposite as I would expect.
 
I don’t think bullets will be back to normal until at least the beginning of 2022. I hope I’m wrong. It could even be longer.
 
If that were the case why would Vista even attempt to restart operations at Remington? If you have a 1 Billion dollar backlog of ammo orders you don’t curtail production. I’m a VSTO shareholder and I read their SEC filings and listen to their earnings conference calls and have never heard them discuss reducing production. In fact, in answers to questions they have indicated the exact opposite as I would expect.
 

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