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My Prediction on the Availability of Supplies

So if production was cut why did cost of goods sold go up??

If production was cut why would you continue to order raw materials such that your raw materials inventory increased substantially??

Your statement: “For example, and let me break it down a bit, if you slow down production, doesn't demand go up?”, is a classic!!! Must not have required Econ 101 at law schools in the 60’s.
Lol. Good one, Sage. Law school, not to mention college and graduate school, were after four years as a soldier. In the 70s and 80s, since a year in Vietnam plus 3 additional years intervened immediately after high school.
As to why a factory might hoard raw materials, read the statement put out by the CEO of Hornady as to why his company has such a large supply of raw materials hoarded as insurance against future shortages. I don't read minds, only published statements. Obviously, you are much more gifted.
 
Thank you for your ever-so- wise and knowledgeable response. I think I read something similar on a fortune cookie once. It's time for my evening walk, down past the Vista Outdoors factories - which brings me back to the beginning. Care to challenge me to a footrace around their nearly empty parking lots? Good night! :cool:

Go for it. At least you can apply and maybe get some close ups??
 
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Lol. Good one, Sage. Law school, not to mention college and graduate school, were after four years as a soldier. In the 70s and 80s, since a year in Vietnam plus 3 additional years intervened immediately after high school.
As to why a factory might hoard raw materials, read the statement put out by the CEO of Hornady as to why his company has such a large supply of raw materials hoarded as insurance against future shortages. I don't read minds, only published statements. Obviously, you are much more gifted.
I read that article. My reading comprehension must be somewhat better than yours when it comes to production quotes!!

 
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I can only report what I see. If you'd like, I can post pics or even videos of the two plants here, including their parking lots, their loading docks and their truck parking areas (entrance is restricted). What I have observed is a marked difference now and in previous years. You form your own conclusions.
I would love to see pictures of it. My conclusion is we’re being shut down!
Thanks highplainsdrifter for your insight!
 
What would be the bottle necks in ammo production, in particular, low visibility areas. Mining, regulatory(primer production), local influences(taxes,health and safety). Can you think of anything in these 3 areas the last couple years? The left( not liberals) know you don't necessarily need to ban guns, when you can choke the supply of ammo. Mining labor (union) disputes and regulations have slowed, halted production. COVID work station safety, governors closing businesses. Most centerfire ammo demand is 9mms, by a large margin. Any significant actual increase in production has been responding to it,(and diverting raw materials away from other lines) not hunting or reloading components. The Marxists need crisis and chaos and they need to control value of anything the population demands.
 

Go for it. At least you can apply and maybe get some close ups??
Jimbo, we used to have a saying back when I had to work for a living. It went: "when you possess the facts, argue the facts. When all you have is the law, argue the law. But when you have neither, pound the table and attack the opponent! " Alas, your pedantic debating style has bored me now so I will say good night, Jimmy. I think I hear your mama calling you!
 
Every day, I see more and more supplies, on the market, some of which are selling for slightly above normal costs. Lately I have bought N133 powder for $10.00 above last years price. Expensive, but not near what it sold for a few months ago.

I shoot Wolf 22LR target match in one of my rimfire rifle rifles. It is now available for $95.00 a brick. Again a bit higher but not that bad. There are now hundreds of sights selling 22LR. Many are still high, but many are with reach of the average shooter.

Brass is now plentiful and primers, while still at least three times normal, at least they can be bought. Bullets are there but not many choices as to weight.

I believe the hoarders have stopped buying as much as they were. They have now stockpiled all they can afford or want. There are many sellers who have refused to gouge the public and while they don't always have product in stock they are forcing the market to go down in price. those who sell at absorbent prices are now sitting on stock they can't seem to sell. Look at Ammo Seek. There are now five full pages of 22LR. Hodgdon is now selling directly to the consumer. Grief and Sons are selling at prices that are tolerable when the have stock. Even Midway USA is limiting powder to 2 pounds at a time. And then there is Blue Collar Reloading. What ever they have in stock is the same price as it was last year.

Most folks are now refusing to fork out outlandish money, which is driving up availability and lowering prices. Furthermore, we the buying public are beginning to realize we don't need more of what we already have on hand.

Three months from now, prices should be much better.

This is my prediction and I may be wrong. There are over 50,000 members here. Supposed we all just sat on our hands for a while.
Sadly I have to disagree. I think we are seeing a slump before another spike.

Focus will be back to school when the summer vacations that are currently a huge distraction after a year of insane overall panic are over. People are starting to get back to normal, supply lines are beginning to at least move. Many things that have been seen in short supply are back at inflated prices. In essence it took a year to get here, it will take a year to get back.

What you did not mention was timing, the calm before the storm.

As many things return to “normal” in the next 90-120 days, so will ammo and component buying/hoarding. Since that 90-120 days brings us into the wind up to what will be a highly contentious election year, where the movement of a single senate seat can change the dynamic of a nation, the panic will ramp up again.

In normal times it would just be an election year spike, but coming at the end of a historic period of government induced panic buying, I think it will have the appearance continuing the run.

The danger is the people who have not seen, or have forgotten this type of spike, who will panic and start another run on supplies.

I hope I’m wrong, but election years in uncertain times, always drive guns and ammo sales to “new” heights.
 
Jimbo, we used to have a saying back when I had to work for a living. It went: "when you possess the facts, argue the facts. When all you have is the law, argue the law. But when you have neither, pound the table and attack the opponent! " Alas, your pedantic debating style has bored me now so I will say good night, Jimmy. I think I hear your mama calling you!
Facts? So far I’ve provided 8 links to sources of facts. You have provided exactly none.

It’s pointless to debate someone on financial and economic issues when their central position is that lowering production creates greater demand.
 
I have to challenge the statement "Brass is now plentiful". Where have you seen .204 Ruger cases? How about .270 WSM brass? .300 WSM? 25-06, 6mm Remington? What cases can you actually find?
 
Well, i've seen 2 reports that are not shiny at all.

First is from a smaller ammo manufacturer.
Militaries did not purchase ammo last summer. Shooting in places didn't stop.
Militaries are now replentishing their supplies.
And are given first priority by ammo manufacturers.

Second is the maritime fleet.
Ships have gotten bigger, carrying more containers, bulk goods (wheat, coal, ore), and fuels. The ports haven't kept up with the increasing size of the ships & volume they carry.
Plus some ships crews have been onboard ship approaching 11-16 months. Replacement crews, and even medical workers are not allowed onboard the ships. And some countries are not allowing ships to dock from certain countries.
Only 2.5% of maritime fleet vaccinated.
 

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