COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[Deleted outa08]

My wife and I went out today and got some beer.We delivered an AR15 to our chiropractor,so he would have it if the stuff gets worse. Most people we talked to were trying to make the most of a bad situation. I`m joining them. I`m done with the numbers, predictions, the what-ifs. I`m 68, most likely near the finish line. I want to be as happy as I can until I cross the line. Just my outlook, not pointing fingers. So stay safe,do what you can to do that and we`ll all be back here in a few weeks or more to talk about our passion for things that go BANG. God be with you all, Jeff

 

[INTJ]

Summary of your post: NPI are helping. Neil Ferguson's team (he has contracted the virus) is able to update their estimates because many of their recommendations were implemented. We will likely owe him and his team an enormous debt of gratitude.

People began to treat the threat seriously. Good. I'm glad the NPI were implemented. In the US, state governors took leadership. Let's see how long the situation lasts. I can tell you that Miami isn't even close to the sort of lockdown that there is in New York, London or elsewhere in Europe. Not even remotely close. And if the stay at home orders are lifted prematurely?

So far today there have already been a further 11,544 confirmed cases in the US and a further 123 deaths. (The numbers kept going higher in the short time it took to type this.) It ain't going to be over by Easter. The fat lady hasn't started singing yet. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Asia was better prepared, principally as a result of SARS 30 years ago. I won't be holding my breath expecting the current administration will better prepare the US for the next one.

Neither of us will get to come back and say "I told you so" regarding the "unchecked virus" scenario because - thankfully - attempts have been made, and some initial success earned, to check it.

(So far 1.4% of the 712 people who contracted the virus on the Diamond Princess have died. That's not far off early expectations for mortality of COVID-19. Ferguson's report had an "overall IFR of 0.9% (95% credible interval 0.4%-1.4%)." 105 people are still receiving care. Luckily they were some of the first to receive it.)

The restrictions definitely appear to help, and Governors are where the main decisions and efforts should be in these types of events. The Federal Government should only be in a supporting role. Further, the Governors need to listen to their Mayors when determining the level of restrictions. What NYC needs is not what Springfield, OR needs. Yes, I am still irritated that they shut down the members only portion of my local gun range where most of the time I had the entire 20 bench 200 yd range to myself, and it was no issue practicing social distance from the 1 or 2 others that would occasionally show up.

And while this Administration has done a reasonable job with this pandemic--not as good as the president thinks but nowhere nearly as badly the press is trying to spin it--I do not want the federal government in the drivers seat for future emergency preparedness. That too belongs at the state and city level with the federal government in a supporting role, not in a directing role.

It would be a mistake to consider the effectiveness of the restrictions by comparing what is happening now with the worse case scenario. Even if nothing had been done the worse case scenario would not have happened. That said, predicting the likely outcome is very hard.

I think the Diamond Princess is an excellent example. As of March 24th: 3711 people, 712 infections, 331 cases with no symptoms, 10 deaths. That does seem to track well with what is happening in the US. The DP so far has a 19% infection rate, 1.4% deaths of those infected, .27% deaths of the total. If the entire nation become infected that would be 900,000 deaths. Perhaps that is a more likely worse case scenario?

 

[SGK]

It's also worth noting that Ferguson's comments which were given during the UK's parliamentary select committee on science and technology were based on keeping the country largely locked down until a vaccine arrived in 12-18 months, something he acknowledged as impractical. He also noted the benefits of increased testing (and associated isolation of confirmed cases) and the plan to massively increase this in the UK to South Korean levels with the aim of testing and tracing the general population. Apparently the original report did not include this because the testing capacity to test the general population simply wasn't available.

So we have social distancing (including isolation of those at risk sectors of the population) coupled with aggressive testing and tracing of the general population allowing the country to not suffer anywhere as much as an unchecked virus. I put that in the "no sh$t Sherlock" bucket. They did the same in Asia only MUCH faster. Let's do the same here and achieve similar benefits.

Note the Imperial College team revised upwards their estimate of their estimate of Ro - the number of people a carrier is expected to infect - from 2.5 to just over 3. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.

 

[INTJ]

I don't know where she got her numbers either, but they are wrong. Here are the doubling times* for U.S. confirmed cases of COVID-19 since crossing the 100-case threshold on 2 March. No trend here yet.

View attachment 1166855

Date/cumulative cases/doubling rate (days)
2-Mar-20 100
3-Mar-20 124 3.2
4-Mar-20 158 2.9
5-Mar-20 221 2.1
6-Mar-20 319 1.9
7-Mar-20 435 2.2
8-Mar-20 541 3.2
9-Mar-20 704 2.6
10-Mar-20 994 2.0
11-Mar-20 1301 2.6
12-Mar-20 1630 3.1
13-Mar-20 2183 2.4
14-Mar-20 2770 2.9
15-Mar-20 3613 2.6
16-Mar-20 4596 2.9
17-Mar-20 6344 2.2
18-Mar-20 9197 1.9
19-Mar-20 13779 1.7
20-Mar-20 19367 2.0
21-Mar-20 24192 3.1
22-Mar-20 33592 2.1
23-Mar-20 43781 2.6
24-Mar-20 54856 3.1
25-Mar-20 68211 3.2


*I calculated doubling time (in days) by:

1. Calculating the proportional daily increase (call it "x") in case number as reported by Johns Hopkins.

x=(case number on day d+1/case number on day d)/case number on day d

2. doubling time = log(2)/log(x)

Yeah, we need more data for there to be a trend. More work should be done in this area to have better predictors for future epidemics.

 

[SGK]

I think the Diamond Princess is an excellent example. As of March 24th: 3711 people, 712 infections, 331 cases with no symptoms, 10 deaths. That does seem to track well with what is happening in the US. The DP so far has a 19% infection rate, 1.4% deaths of those infected, .27% deaths of the total. If the entire nation become infected that would be 900,000 deaths. Perhaps that is a more likely worse case scenario?

And just how did they limit the infection rate to 19%?

 

[INTJ]

On the figures issue, I read an interesting comment by a UK Daily Telegraph financial journalist whom I rate very highly. (He warned early on that western countries especially the US weren't taking CV-19 nearly seriously enough and his predictions of that time are unfortunately proving all too accurate now.)

Anyway his point is that financial sector analysts who are all now working flat out on the effects of the pandemic on both national economies and the likely futures of individual sectors and companies, now totally ignore the 'confirmed case' figures being published as they're hopelessly understated. They use deaths as the one to watch to see what the real trend is. Case numbers maybe work in the very early stages before deaths really kick in, but not when the disease becomes widespread.

Even death figures can be dubious in the short term. Apart from those countries who either don't know because of weak regional/local health infrastructures / don't give a monkey's about how many of their citizens are dying, and/or are congenital liars to the rest of the world about such issues, there can be simple accounting errors by heavily stressed officials. There was great relief, almost jubilation, when Italy's day on day additional death count apparently fell a couple of days back, but it turned out a day later that the return from a region had been missed and the overall total understated by 40. Add them in and at best there is a maybe-start-of-a-plateau, but not a fall. It was also reported today by the same journo' that the Mayor of the Italian town of Bergamo (pop: 122K, part of the Milan metro area) claims that four times as many people are dying of the virus in his town than the official Italian Health Ministry figures show. This guy seems to have a habit of making wild claims of various sorts over the virus, so it may all be smoke and mirrors, but it makes you wonder (not to say worry!).

Another issue with death statistics is there is a tendency to call anyone who gets COVID-19 and dies a COVID-19 death, when in most cases the people that died had one or more underlying issues and would have died soon anyway. That is a terribly insensitive way to put it, but it is something to factor into the data analysis.

 

[SGK]

That's the most linear logarithmic curve I've ever seen.

Yes. The vertical scale is logarithmic and so the line becomes very linear. The slope of the linear line (with log y scale) is demonstrative of the exponent.

 

[INTJ]

And just how did they limit the infection rate to 19%?

No doubt they took precautions, but they were also in a much higher risk environment. I don't know how to account for both variables.

That said I have never opposed targeted quarantines and restrictions. I opposed the panic and overreactions caused by sensationalist media reporting and politicians going along to advance their agenda and CYA.

Interestingly, the public does get "panic fatigue", especially when the disaster being pushed doesn't happen. The media and our politicians have done this so often they lack credibility, which can actually make things worse as people choose to disregard guidance on those rare times when it is reasonable.

 

[SGK]

They confined everyone to their rooms for a quarantine period. Social distancing knocked the spread on its head. Imagine if they hadn't. Recalculate your figures for 60-80% infection.

I agree with you that people will get less cooperative with restrictions. The result is a likely reburst post summer. Ferguson's report shows the rebound occurring even after 5 months of social distancing etc. A lot of people disregarded guidance at the beginning - a mere 3 weeks or so ago.

 

[spclark]

Mankind has been trading for hundreds of thousands of years. Very very few people in this world make everything they need to exist themselves.

True enough but then so also it is that up until a very short time ago (on the scale of those hundreds of thousands of years) few, if any of 'mankind' had the means to have their body - and its infections - transported anywhere beyond the vicinity in which they spent maybe their entire lives. 20 miles once was a distance few ever traveled in their lifetime! Now one can be 10,000 miles distant in 24 hours or less.

400 years ago it took months for an infectious agent to reach a new population having no immunity.

Now it takes hours.

With an agent that can't be diagnosed for a period of time after exposure, while it takes over manufacturing more of itself in an infected host, then exposes other potential hosts... before it can die off... we're living with the result.

 

[spclark]

A friend at work related a brief description of a call he got from a cousin delivering ice cream in New Mexico. The delivery was turned back at the state line because it was't 'necessary goods.'

After asking the transport company what they wanted him to do they allegedly informed him they wouldn't pay to return with the undelivered product.

Friend then went on to relate how he'd heard that trucks at rest stops in Utah and Idaho are being broken into while they sit idle during this national emergency.

I have to wonder what it takes to have the states ask for National Guard assistance to put down the looting?

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Johns Hopkins live cronovirus map disagrees. Not far off but not yet. New York seems to be the problem.

Check again. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

[INTJ]

They confined everyone to their rooms for a quarantine period. Social distancing knocked the spread on its head. Imagine if they hadn't. Recalculate your figures for 60-80% infection.

I agree with you that people will get less cooperative with restrictions. The result is a likely reburst post summer. Ferguson's report shows the rebound occurring even after 5 months of social distancing etc. A lot of people disregarded guidance at the beginning - a mere 3 weeks or so ago.

How do you know it would have been 60-80% infection rate?

The WHO, looking at data from China, said there was a 1-5% chance of getting the virus.

Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine said that if you had an infected person in your house it became a 10% chance you would be infected.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/a-data-driven-look-at-the-wuhan-coronavirus.php

We still aren't up to the infection rate on the Diamond Princess.

The unknown is how much quarantine and social distance affected those numbers. However, it is incorrect to assume that without government mandated quarantine and restrictions that no one would do it.

I personally practice social distance at all times and wash my hands anytime I am in a public place, and I am not the only one that does that. Many people who are at most risk will also change their behavior to mitigate that risk when they know the threat.

 

[SGK]

Link to report 12 from the Imperial College Team (26 March)

(Download Report 12)

Summary and other reports here https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

 

[Deleted outa08]

They confined everyone to their rooms for a quarantine period. Social distancing knocked the spread on its head. Imagine if they hadn't. Recalculate your figures for 60-80% infection.

I agree with you that people will get less cooperative with restrictions. The result is a likely reburst post summer. Ferguson's report shows the rebound occurring even after 5 months of social distancing etc. A lot of people disregarded guidance at the beginning - a mere 3 weeks or so ago.

Did you and INTJ consider PM`s. Think about it. Jeff

 

[INTJ]

Did you and INTJ consider PM`s. Think about it. Jeff

Are we simply discussing the topic at hand in a civil manner? Is that not appropriate on this forum?

 

[JimT]

Did you and INTJ consider PM`s. Think about it. Jeff

I like the exchange of facts and opinions! Did you ever consider not reading this thread?????

 

[ronsatspokane]

Check again. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Yup, finally made it past. Guess we are the winners. Thank you New York. They were still encouraging people to go out to eat and go to a movie while the NBA was canceling the season. They were also told by their leaders that it was ok to ride the subway (which it sounds like is where a lot of people picked up the virus). This was as the virus was already in bloom.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Yes. The vertical scale is logarithmic and so the line becomes very linear. The slope of the linear line (with log y scale) is demonstrative of the exponent.

Not the best presentation. Reminds me of statistics classes 40 years ago. Telling a story via numbers is an art and that chart does not obviously present the story the author is trying to tell, if the author is trying to reach a broad audience.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Not the best presentation.

Standard in math and science, because a linear scale is unreadable at the low end of a logarithmic curve, and it's simpler to extrapolate a straight line than a logarithmic function plotted on a linear scale.