To make this even more simple...
Since your once fired cases will still allow your bolt to close easy, and you have that data, you should try and use that data and that longer Lapua sample to establish your chamber size.
Being careful with that long Lapua case, since you only found one where the bolt doesn't want to close, carefully start with your FL die turned out where it has no effect and slowly approach the shoulder to try and catch the first sign of it changing the shoulder datum length.
Also use your chamber to verify that feel as well.
Using the very small changes slowly turn the die in to "bump" that shoulder datum down just the first little bit and chamber again while collecting the measurement data and taking notes. Continue till the dimension has changed just 0.001" - 0.002" (0.0254 - 0.0508 mm) . Along the way you may even find that the shoulder datum dimension climbs before it shrinks. This is not uncommon and depends on several variables including the brass and the chamber size compared to the die.
Once you have bumped that shoulder down as above, keep a record of the value and compare it to the earlier ones where the fired cases were still closing in the chamber without effort. You will eventually see them grow to the value and then get tight till they are bumped down where the bolt first closes easily.
You are just a few cycles short of getting a tight closure on those fired cases. It sometimes takes four or more cycles to establish the chamber size, but it can also happen in just two or three cycles depending on your brass, chamber, pressure, and luck.
ETA: Your concern about expander balls and mandrels also changing the shoulder datum on the case is not wrong. Expander balls being pulled back up can alter the shoulders in instances where there is too much cold working and not enough lube. An expander mandrel is less harsh, but you should also consider using lubrication to minimize the longitudinal force on the neck and shoulder. When done right, and expander mandrel will not significantly affect that shoulder length.
Good Luck and take lots of notes.