A Second Vista Video

[bluealtered]

I would have to agree with dusty here, Iv'e been a range rat for over fifty years and picked up more 5 gal. buckets full of brass than i can count during that time. It comes down to two things, one, a lot of people are to damn lazy to pick up after themselves until these shortages happen and then whine about not having enough ammo or primers. The other is simply, supply and demand.

This isn't the first, second or third time this has happened and it won't be the last either. If you haven't learned by now the sport we all love can be stopped at any time simply by stopping the flow of the parts needed to keep it running, then you will be simply caught again next time it happens.

Maybe, just maybe you should actually think ahead and prepare for whats ahead of us as a sport instead of whining about it after the fact, just look up two words, ... insanity and stupidity, ... they both fit really well here.

 

[bobinpa]

Have you been to a public range? Factory ammo is probably 10x more production than primers only, maybe more. I see guys melt ar handguards and shoot thousands of 9mm ammo per week. Ive seen chrome lined AR barrels smooth inside from tens of thousands of rounds thru them 30-60 at a time.

No, I have never been to a public range. However I know several clay target shooters that shoot in excess of 10,000 rounds a year and they all reload their shells. I also know a few pistol and rifle shooters and they reload their ammo also. In the video, he explained that they were trying to keep up with hunting ammo sales..... and my only point was that target shooters use more primers than hunters, because I've never seen anyone use hundreds of rounds getting ready for a big game hunt.
So I think it would help their PR if they set aside a small percentage of their components for reloaders because reloaders use a LOT of components....

 

[JimT]

I would love to read your rationale for that opinion. I assume you do not reload...or possibly sell loaded ammunition?

Several posts above do a better job than I could.

I’ve been reloading for almost 50 years and don’t sell loaded ammo or components I have acquired. Having been through several of these irrational panics I am more than prepared to ride this one out and several more in the future.

I was buying the past 4 years when vendors were begging me to and in some cases paying me to!! Where were you?

 

[johara1]

The main reason is to create a demand for primers after a year wait..... You will pay anything to get some for the following year. I bet you will be paying 5-7 cents a primer then, they done there homework...... This is a pattern similar to bb's I use to pay 10.00 @ 100 lb. ,now you pay 36.00 a bag of 25 lb..... jim

 

[r bose]

It’s not complicated guys and they really don’t have to sell any primers at all. And quite frankly why would they?? If they don’t have primers to make ammo and keep their machines going they won’t be in business. They are operating as they should right now.

TOTALLY AGREE. You want them to sell you a primer for 3 cents each when they can use that same primer to make a hunting round that sells for $1.50 to $3.00 or more? This guy is in business and has a board of directors to answer to and a publicly traded stock that depends on quarterly earnings reports. He is going to do what's MOST profitable first.

 

[457ciSBC]

Of course we see your points on the manufacture having to keep afloat and make a profit. I was just trying to say that hand loading supports lots of business too. Such as Berger, Sierra, Hornady, Lyman, RCBS, etc, and lots of other small manufacturers that depend on a supply of primers for their bottom line too.

TOTALLY AGREE. You want them to sell you a primer for 3 cents each when they can use that same primer to make a hunting round that sells for $1.50 to $3.00 or more? This guy is in business and has a board of directors to answer to and a publicly traded stock that depends on quarterly earnings reports. He is going to do what's MOST profitable first.

Bingo, look at the 1 year and just the YTD performance and then try to explain to the board of directors why they should make a course correction in the primer section of the business.

 

[Capt45]

Apparently not. Why don’t you audition for the role of informing him. The stage is all yours!!

Snarky much? I would love to have the opportunity to discuss the matter with him FACE to FACE. I think he might leave with an understanding or modified perspective.

 

[r bose]

Bingo, look at the 1 year and just the YTD performance and then try to explain to the board of directors why they should make a course correction in the primer section of the business.

Yes sir. I bought at 4.80 per share in March, 10 months ago. 52 week projection looks very promising

 

[Dave Marshall]

They currently need every primer produced to keep the loaded ammunition manufacturing lines running. This includes keeping those employees employed and everything that goes with it. Don’t get hung up on “hunting ammo”. How many rounds of plinking and plain old ball ammo need to be produced to meet current demand? They all use the same primers.

There simply is no surplus of primers to sell to reloaders. Get used to it.

 

[Downhill]

It is just basic economics. He was hired to manage the business and to keep it profitable. Handloading is a fractional part of this equation. His profit margin is in ammunition manufacture, plain and simple. If primer manufacturing could be an extremely profitable venture, I imagine someone would have started a business with a directed focus at doing such.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Of course we see your points on the manufacture having to keep afloat and make a profit. I was just trying to say that hand loading supports lots of business too. Such as Berger, Sierra, Hornady, Lyman, RCBS, etc, and lots of other small manufacturers that depend on a supply of primers for their bottom line too.

This is true. And there are way more than that. It is also true that knowledge is expanding in the general shooting population with regard to the advantages of reloading in terms of both cost and precision. When I said that precision shooters have added nothing to the market, that may have been over stated. One thing precision shooting seems to be doing to the market is expanding the awareness of the issues that those who do load development for their specific rifles deal with daily. That in turn has driven demand for higher quality components. Many small businesses have rushed in to fill that demand. Over time some of those small business that are successful have been acquired by the larger business entities who see that the market is growing and who want to capture some of that revenue. Let's take Berger for example. One guy producing a quality product for a very niche market. The word spread, the demand increased, Berger is now owned by an international conglomerate named Nammo. Nammo is of course the parent company of Lapua. In the context of Nammo alone, the Berger product line represents a relatively small portion of the companies overall revenue. In the context of the overall world market for ammunition, components and supplies, the demand driven by precision shooters is still very small. As much as we would hate to admit it, we are no more significant than a pimple on an elephants ass.

Think about it in terms of raw numbers. You go to local matches and if your region is like mine, you know who will be there. Even at the national level, you go to a match like the Berger southwest nationals a couple of times and you will see the same people there year after year. You likely know many of them. I have not been to the world championships but I know people who have and they know the people who show up there. Now consider that 7 million new gun owners have been added to the rolls that already had 100+ million in the US alone. If each of them only purchase one box of ammo a year, the volume in that year likely exceeds the volume of all the ammo produced by the precision shooting community in history. And given the inventory levels of ammo at retail outlets these days, we know that they are purchasing far more than one box. Collectively (god I hate that word) we are still a relatively small community. Let's change that.

When you go to your local range and see new people, don't be a snob. Talk to them. Find out what they are trying to accomplish with that shinny new 300 dollar gun topped with a Simmons scope. Help them if they need it. Show them what you are doing. Let them look through your Nightforce Comp and see the grains in the paper you're shooting at. Let them shoot a couple rounds and be amazed by the fact that they are going through the same hole. Tell them how you achieved that and what you are trying to do. Invite them to the local matches. Don't be pushy, be helpful. Plant those seeds of knowledge. You never know if they will bear fruit but one day you may show up at a match and see a new face. In that way, over time we may get to the point where we have some industry pull and when we demand primers, primers will appear.

 

[BillJ]

There is no question Jason is hired to run the company to make the stock price increase and make money / profit. Politics has served him well.. Times are not the same.. Tea leaves show anti's will have a long run... Do any of you think Ford or GM or Toyota would ever have this problem? Heck no! It would be solved, and solved fast...
I have no idea the % increase is for ammo / components... I have no idea how much ammo and components have increased in price. But with this demand, this major suppler should have already had a plan in place to meet such a demand if this ever happened. Remember how well prepared the "government" was when Covid hit? Might want to stop making videos and assemble a team and meet demand.. Infrastructure, Equipment, Personnel, Supplies.... make ammo and components..

 

[3Ackleys]

A store near me received new CCI and Federal primers 2 weeks ago. Sm rifle, sm & lg pistol the rifle lasted 1 day and the pistol primers lasted a week.

 

[JimT]

There is no question Jason is hired to run the company to make the stock price increase and make money / profit. Politics has served him well.. Times are not the same.. Tea leaves show anti's will have a long run... Do any of you think Ford or GM or Toyota would ever have this problem? Heck no! It would be solved, and solved fast...
I have no idea the % increase is for ammo / components... I have no idea how much ammo and components have increased in price. But with this demand, this major suppler should have already had a plan in place to meet such a demand if this ever happened. Remember how well prepared the "government" was when Covid hit? Might want to stop making videos and assemble a team and meet demand.. Infrastructure, Equipment, Personnel, Supplies.... make ammo and components..

Imagine if he would have followed your neo-MBA advice during the last irrational panic buying episode, that’s right, he wouldn’t be making videos because he wouldn’t have a job.

I just wish all of the guys advising them to expand P&E actually had money to lend them so when the factory sat idle, as it would have the past 4 years, they could default and leave you holding the bag.

 

[BillJ]

I am certainly no expert but:
Did the last slow down have 7 million new gun owners?
We can assume the 7 million new gun owner increase is not for varmint, game and punching paper?
What's the reason? Do you see it getting any better?

 

[ronsatspokane]

There is no question Jason is hired to run the company to make the stock price increase and make money / profit. Politics has served him well.. Times are not the same.. Tea leaves show anti's will have a long run... Do any of you think Ford or GM or Toyota would ever have this problem? Heck no! It would be solved, and solved fast...
I have no idea the % increase is for ammo / components... I have no idea how much ammo and components have increased in price. But with this demand, this major suppler should have already had a plan in place to meet such a demand if this ever happened. Remember how well prepared the "government" was when Covid hit? Might want to stop making videos and assemble a team and meet demand.. Infrastructure, Equipment, Personnel, Supplies.... make ammo and components..

Clearly they missed the boat and in that you are presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity. Go forth, acquire the capital, plant, equipment, labor force, build the supply chain and take his business away. Ignore all that JIT inventory, cost accounting, cash flow and profitability MBA kaka. Please let us know when you are shipping product.

 

[Kracken McGraw]

I heard today that we’re losing a thousand jobs a hour now, economics may take care of the demand aspect.

 

[DaveTooley]

Vista Outdoor stock 1 year +300% 1 month +39%
They're doing something right

 

[gdbleb]

There is no question Jason is hired to run the company to make the stock price increase and make money / profit. Politics has served him well.. Times are not the same.. Tea leaves show anti's will have a long run... Do any of you think Ford or GM or Toyota would ever have this problem? Heck no! It would be solved, and solved fast...
I have no idea the % increase is for ammo / components... I have no idea how much ammo and components have increased in price. But with this demand, this major suppler should have already had a plan in place to meet such a demand if this ever happened. Remember how well prepared the "government" was when Covid hit? Might want to stop making videos and assemble a team and meet demand.. Infrastructure, Equipment, Personnel, Supplies.... make ammo and components..

I'm sure they strategized about the election results when they did their capacity projections a year ago. He did say they had excess capacity a year ago. They probably were prepared for a change in the presidency and the increased demand that would bring. What they didn't see was the flood of demand after the "Summer of Love" and "Defund the Police". That entire video had him strolling through empty racks and empty pallets.

 

[jk80]

Imagine if he would have followed your neo-MBA advice during the last irrational panic buying episode, that’s right, he wouldn’t be making videos because he wouldn’t have a job.

I just wish all of the guys advising them to expand P&E actually had money to lend them so when the factory sat idle, as it would have the past 4 years, they could default and leave you holding the bag.

The problem is this isn't the first time this has happened. Three or four times in the last ten years with things taking a year or more to catch up. People on here keep raking people over the coals for not having a lifetime supply of primers or whatever, but the manufacturers get a free ride when they get caught with their pants down. Ive been through this shortage crap before and have plenty but 7 or 8 million new shooters haven't. If, as politics seem to be shaping up, this is going to continue, how long do we have to wait before the manufacturing side wakes up as we were expected to do. Machinery has a long lead in time and then takes a while to get up and running. Maybe these manufacturers actuaries need to sharpen their pencils and take a closer look. Jmho.