OP has the answer. Have not shot a Speer in many years. However, a Speer is not a Sierra or a Berger. If the Sierra is shooting good at 200, then don't shoot the Speer at that distance. Dusty is probably right, something is up with the bullet!
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The 306,000 rpm rotational speed does not decay in proportion to velocity, so the TNT's thin jacket could well be starting to come apart between 150 and 200 as the bullet loses velocity but the RPM barely changes. The fact that other similar bullets have no problems suggest this particular bullet made with a thin jacket in order to explode varmints into 'pink mist' may not be able to handle that rpm quite as well as others. A close inspection of target paper may reveal some telltale evidence, particularly if a 300 yd range is available.I shot both the 70 grainers on 2 different days just to check. Speer and Sierra both shoot great @ 150 and Sierra shoots great @ 200 but TNT sucks. Conditions same both days. If the TNT was coming apart, would it not come apart in the first 150 when vel. is highest?
Anyway, this load is lost to mysteries of the universe.
Yep, without flags, you can't know what the wind is doing. So, saying there was no wind without flags, coupled with no other logical explanation for groups opening up during the last 50 yards, well...Shooting without flags is a waste of powder, bullets and barrel life. You can't learn from what can't been seen.There is always wind. I love when people say they shoot when there is no wind. The only way there is no wind is if you shoot in a tunnel or a chicken house. While your shooting those bullets that your shooting they are not the optimum bullet weight for the twist that your using. Also what Dusty said. Get some flags.
It takes a mighty wind to blow bullets out a couple inches between 150 and 200. I'm going to double down on my assertion that your bullets are coming apart from excessive rpm. Why not pick up a box of 90-105gn bullets and give them a try? They'd be much better suited to your twist rate.No wind. I am shooting off my back deck with targets no more than 10 degree change of angle between 150 and 200. The 70 gr. Sierra is shooting less than .5 moa when I do my part @ 200 with same load. Both the Sierra and Speer are shooting WAY under .5 moa at 150. I have repeated this several times on 2 days.
I am betting on bullet failing. I have not Speer TNT in the 6BR, but I did "try" to shoot them in the 223 AR. No bueno. No matter how light I loaded them, in a 1:7 twist barrel, about 1 in 4 would vaporize leaving a gray contrail to the 100 yd target. However, the ones that made it to target were accurate.If it is really, honestly shooting 0.5" at 150, then I'd expect no more than 0.75" at 200. Going up to 2" in the last 50yds sounds like the bullets are failing.
3400fps in an 8 twist is 306krpm. Could the bullets be coming apart? Maybe not entirely going poof, but jacket and core are starting to separate and destabilize? Many bullets can go poof at 300krpm and above.