Over the years I got to where I test first shot cold bbl with a dirty barrel over a period of time. This time of year, I have the time to do that, take the gun out, shoot some foulers, let it get cold whilst I shoot something else, check POI shift from day to day, cold to a second shot. Over time a person sees what it is doing, what results to expect, where to actually establish your POA to establish a good POI on that first shot. Doesn't take all that many shots, shows you what that load is really doing. I usually cut that target out, mark POI vs POA on it, assemble them all after I have enough to see the picture and see the real overall picture of what the load and gun do over time. Come hunting season, I foul it with 4 shots, tape the end of the barrel with elec tape, don't touch again unless I need to, til end of season.
At a match, usually have time to fire a few foulers or groups or whatever, so I don't really worry about that first shot too much in that case. Depends what you are doing, what you need to do right away as to how to deal with it, and putting enough time and shots into it to have a proper knowledge of what will usually happen on a first shot vs second shot.