COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

We're likely to hear more and more about COVID's "k factor"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ny-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

 

[INTJ]

It was. The closest comparative was 1918 'flu pandemic. But for this one we've had the opportunity to react differently and more quickly. The narrative was COVID is likely to be "unlike anything else in our lifetimes." The last three words are important. It was the idiots who claimed this wasn't as bad as seasonal 'flu or annual driving fatalities that had the wrong comparator.

We're only a few months in and have a long way to go. It would be a brave and optimistic person who doesn't expect a significant second wave of this thing, particularly in the US. At the end of February there were supposedly just 15 or so confirmed cases in the US. Now 1.15 million confirmed cases are being tracked and, despite encouraging recent trends, that number continues to grow. Sure more of those confirmed cases have less severe symptoms and are less likely to die (deaths are now just 17% of cases that have reached an outcome) but there's still a lot more people carrying the disease than there was in February. We need the number of confirmed and unresolved cases to fall dramatically. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

We all want things to return to normal but that's going to be difficult for many people for many more months to come.

Carnival Cruise Lines is restarting services on August 1. I hear the prices are deeply discounted. Time for that trip of a lifetime?

The Spanish flu was not a coronavirus, and even the NYT early in march acknowledged COVID was different than the Spanish Flu.

The response to COVID has NOT been driven by science but by ideology, politics, and opportunity. What my state of Oregon is doing now in Phase I reopening should have been the initial response.

 

[JimT]

He must not be in Toby’s social circle.


"Back in March, I did not think this would be possible — I was not expecting 100,000 deaths," said Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.“

 

[ronsatspokane]

Man, you crack me up. A few drops short of a pint. How's the air way out there on the far edge of rational?

It's all good here. Helps if you know what the scientific method is. But you keep pitching hope as science and one day they may coincide. Stranger things have happened.

In the meantime, it's nice to get an F Class practice match in. NRA has shutdown competitions through June but we are going ahead. First fire with new rifle in a match with switching head winds from 0-15 mph at 600 yards. Shot a 198 10x. The let offs got me. This gun will shoot. 6 BRA is real science.

 

[ronsatspokane]

He must not be in Toby’s social circle.


"Back in March, I did not think this would be possible — I was not expecting 100,000 deaths," said Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.“

Didn't they predict a million or more. That's the trouble with models. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[Brians356]

Didn't they predict a million or more.

I think that was that Ferguson chap at Imperial College.

How many of the 100,000 deaths here were of Covid-19 and not really just with Covid-19? Nearly all deaths have been with comorbidities. That fact is just impossible to circumnavigate.
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[Brians356]

FWIW I found this useful map, apparently updated often if not daily. (I've found this type of article/map elsewhere, but they are usually one-offs and not subsequently updated.)

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3
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[Adam in WI]

It was the idiots who claimed this wasn't as bad as annual driving fatalities that had the wrong comparator.

1.35 million annually vs ~350,000 (so far, granted).

3,700 daily vs ~5,000 daily (and trending downward since mid April).

Idiots, indeed.

 

[jds holler]

It's very likely that the eventual outcome of this pandemic won't be much different than if we had done nothing to fight it. It's going to run it's course, and cause more death and sickness until it stabilizes and becomes another fact of life.

The world-wide media has managed to turn a viral disease which would have been bad enough, into a horrific economic, psychologic, and now a political nightmare.

This must be realized, admitted, and nipped in the bud, or we're going to be crippled and cowed by every disaster that comes down the pike. jd

 

[SGK]

Didn't they predict a million or more. That's the trouble with models. Garbage in, garbage out.

I think that was that Ferguson chap at Imperial College.

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Unchecked scenario. Luckily it never happened. Their scenarios modeling the impact of NPI produced dramatically lower numbers. Hence NPI were implemented. But of course people conveniently forget all this.

Roll on Fall...

 

[SGK]

It's very likely that the eventual outcome of this pandemic won't be much different than if we had done nothing to fight it. It's going to run it's course, and cause more death and sickness until it stabilizes and becomes another fact of life.

The world-wide media has managed to turn a viral disease which would have been bad enough, into a horrific economic, psychologic, and now a political nightmare.

This must be realized, admitted, and nipped in the bud, or we're going to be crippled and cowed by every disaster that comes down the pike. jd

Pass the joint along mate

 

[DRNewcomb]

Didn't they predict a million or more. That's the trouble with models. Garbage in, garbage out.

The problem with social science models is that knowledge of the model changes the subject's behavior. If they had not warned everyone about what the model was predicting and just said, "Keep doing things as normal." you might have seen a million dead. What happened was that we were asked to "flatten the curve" and we did just that by staying at home, closing businesses, etc. I posted early on in the process that if we were successful, you would hear from a lot of people carping that it was all unnecessary. I think we're seeing my prediction come true now. BTW, the Japanese are experts at masking when in public, not touching, etc. They have had 858 deaths to date, proving that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

 

[JEFFPPC]

I am very disappointed this thread even keeps going. How can you have a thread with fraudulent statistics. When they say bring your guns to the local police station tomorrow at 10 AM, all you kool aid drinkers I'll be first in line. Talk about a political thread that should be deleted, Where are you moderators?

 

[JimT]

I am very disappointed this thread even keeps going. How can you have a thread with fraudulent statistics. When they say bring your guns to the local police station tomorrow at 10 AM, all you kool aid drinkers I'll be first in line. Talk about a political thread that should be deleted, Where are you moderators?

Lots of “statistics” on all sides of this issue have been shared on this thread. If you don’t have the wherewithal to sift through them, might I suggest you place this thread on your ignore list?

 

[SGK]

Unchecked scenario. Luckily it never happened. Their scenarios modeling the impact of NPI produced dramatically lower numbers. Hence NPI were implemented. But of course people conveniently forget all this.

Maybe a pic with Trump in it will make y'all remember that the 1.5-2.2 million scenario was the "no intervention" scenario. We just clocked through the low end of the "with intervention" scenario. Eyes Wide Shut.

 

[ronsatspokane]

The problem with social science models is that knowledge of the model changes the subject's behavior. If they had not warned everyone about what the model was predicting and just said, "Keep doing things as normal." you might have seen a million dead. What happened was that we were asked to "flatten the curve" and we did just that by staying at home, closing businesses, etc. I posted early on in the process that if we were successful, you would hear from a lot of people carping that it was all unnecessary. I think we're seeing my prediction come true now. BTW, the Japanese are experts at masking when in public, not touching, etc. They have had 858 deaths to date, proving that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

There is a fundamental difference between flattening the curve and achieving herd immunity. Herd immunity will be reached regardless of the degree of lockdown. It cannot be stopped. It can only be slowed. The slow down was successful. Now what? Now it seems that many want the worlds population locked up until all the diseases that plague man are vanquished. That will never happen.

As far as whether it was necessary or not. Compare Sweeden to Italy.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Maybe a pic with Trump in it will make y'all remember that the 1.5-2.2 million scenario was the "no intervention" scenario. We just clocked through the low end of the "with intervention" scenario. Eyes Wide Shut.

View attachment 1181930

And we now know that the model was incorrect. Likely due to the lack of quality training data used to train the model.

 

[SGK]

Sweden's economy is suffering almost as much as its neighbors. No surprises there. The best example of crisis management outside of Asia is New Zealand (and to a lesser extent Australia). Decisive action, even if they weren't the fastest to close borders; clear and sensible leadership; a population that for the most part trusts their elected government; a population with - it seems - a larger degree of commonsense. After a complete and successful lockdown the virus is basically gone and the domestic economy almost fully reopened and back to normal. A recovery in tourism remains a long way off but it won't be long before the border reopens with Australia. Job done. Bloody clever those kiwis.

 

[SGK]

And we now know that the model was incorrect. Likely due to the lack of quality training data used to train the model.

Two scenarios examined. Only one deployed. Range on the one deployed 100,000 - 240,000. Current total 102,241 and ticking along. Doesn't look "incorrect" to me.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Unchecked scenario. Luckily it never happened. Their scenarios modeling the impact of NPI produced dramatically lower numbers. Hence NPI were implemented. But of course people conveniently forget all this.

Roll on Fall...

The numbers will never be lowered. The growth of the numbers can only be slowed and that was the pitch even though the pitch has now been changed. If the model was correct, the numbers will eventually reach those predicted by the model. However, I think everyone realizes by now that the model was not correct and several iterations were required to bring it to the point that it had some efficacy.

You have been advocating for slowing via locking down the worlds population. That is the path most of the world chose. Sweden took a different path. It boils down to the age old question, one in the head or three in the gut? Sweden chose one in the head. The rest of the world has yet to take all three in the gut. In two or three years when the science is in we will have a valid basis for comparison of the two approaches. For now, everyone is quoting point data as if the data itself were science and proof that their preferred approach is correct. Everyone is full of shite.