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Digging Deeper into COVID-19

6ShotsOr5?

NBRSA TSRA NRA
Gold $$ Contributor
It hasn’t been very satisfying to me seeing tables and maps telling me bloody obvious facts like New York has a lot of COVID19 cases and Wyoming doesn’t have very many. No kidding? o_O I kept hearing praise about SD’s management of the pandemic (no lockdown, tastes great!), and not-so-good things about FL (closed their beaches too late), but what about the effects of total population and population density? I’ve been to both states many times, and I’m pretty sure FL is a wee bit more crowded than SD. Plus there’s a lot of southern FL (and LA) that probably gets counted as land but maybe all that swamp shouldn’t be counted. If your house floats or you wish it could or you have to raise it on poles that sounds offshore to me. Hell, Houston feels kind of offshore lately.

I used some basic public data sources to analyze the impact of population and population density on COVID19 cases in the USA jurisdiction lands. A data table and three charts are attached. The analyses show some interesting surprises. Of course nobody knows how many people actually contracted the disease while making a visit to another state (FL or TX @ Spring Break) and then tested positive after they got back home ( to NY / NJ / PA). Still, I’ll bet it will surprise nobody that the greatest outlier in terms of per capita disease rates is the home of our fearless leaders in Washington DC! Somebody is taking very good care of them using our money! NY doesn’t look great by comparison with even their neighbors MA/CT/RI, but if you consider that the real population density of Gotham is skewed far downward by a lot of near-empty land upstate, I can’t knock them too hard. FL actually looks pretty good, as well as TX and CA. On the other hand, when you consider population density, LA doesn’t look to good, nor does SD.

Another thing I can see in the data are about 6 states that are above ~0.7%+ of the total population in terms of case counts, and most states are still down around ~0.2% of the population. The few states with the higher per capita case counts show the rest of us what can happen, so keep following the mitigation guidelines and keep using the loads of common sense that I believe most people on this forum have. Stay home as much and as long as you can afford to. Reminds me of some famous advice that IDUNNO once said - “Keep your powder dry, and stay away from crowds”.

Full disclosure - I’m an engineer residing in SE Texas and working for a publicly traded energy company.
 

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I'm just north of Austin, Josh. Our county will not test unless you present all the symptoms of covid, so the presymptomatic and asymptomatic are the walking wounded that are rapidly spreading the disease yet going undetected, and the skyrocketing case count is confirming that. No masks required in our county, never have been so we're a long way from being done with this bug, especially since the talking heads in Austin have decided to open things back up. Are they certifiably stupid, or are they planning on using the pandemic to game the Nov. election? We'll know the truth come October.

Yesterday was the first day of the so-called opening but with conditions. So far, no county or city has met the conditional requirement to open, yet sudden uptick in traffic on the roads said otherwise. People can't seem to take this seriously. As for me, I won't be spending my money at any store that does not require masks being worn.
 
I've been taking note of the total Covid-19 cases in the US over the months. Here are some eye-popping numbers taken on the first day of each month.

Jan 1: no cases. I believe Jan 8th was the first officially recorded case.
Feb. 1: 8 cases
Mar. 1: 30 cases
Apr. 1: 213,144 cases
May 1: 1,121,543 cases

Anyone else see a trend? https://ncov2019.live/

Edit 5/2/20 afternoon. There have been about 52,000 more confirmed cases reported just today, and 2,200 more deaths. It will take just 4 more days to add more than all the cases reported in three months, Jan 1 to April 1.
A total of 908,399 became infected in the US just in the month of April. That averages out to 30,279 at day. But we haven't leveled the infection rate yet, it's still going up at a exponential rate. So for you mathematicians out there, what calculations can you make on the current infection rate for the month of May? Another 3 million?

If the projections of walking wounded are anywhere near correct, approximately 60% of infected persons never get sick enough to get a confirmation through testing, yet they continue to spread the virus for weeks. If today's total confirmed cases represents only 40% of true new infections, over 110,000 people became infected just today.
 
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OK, we know this virus is deadly...... to a few and some don't even know they have it or had it.

I am from New York State, the very western part, only 50K in our county. We have had 35 confirmed cases and 1 death. We are hearing all kinds of stories about how COVID 19 deaths are recorded .

The statistic I want to see is the total deaths from Jan 1, 2020 to June 1, 2020 compared to the total deaths from Jan 1, 2019 till June 1, 2019. By state and county. Only than will I be able to decide just how serious the Chinese flu is/was!

I am having a hard time understanding how the infection was/is so deadly in NYC and NJ. There are many cities with dense populations and public transportation. Why was the east coast hit harder than the west coast.

I have a theory and hope I am wrong!
 
I kept hearing praise about SD’s management of the pandemic (no lockdown, tastes great!), and not-so-good things about FL (closed their beaches too late), but what about the effects of total population and population density? I’ve been to both states many times, and I’m pretty sure FL is a wee bit more crowded than SD.
Speaking as a SD resident, I wish more people understood that "here" isn't anything like "there." Maybe then the rest of the country will stop trying to shove idiotic laws down our throats that might belong elsewhere, but not here.
 
As most of you know Germans are fanatics about keeping accurate records. Their death rate from this is .04%
https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preli...infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/
This was a huge hoax with fraudulent numbers.
@DirtySteve, I read the story you linked and I think your number should have said 0.4%, not 0.04%. Even so, it is a very interesting read in saying that it appears the current pandemic is less deadly than many people think because the number of undetected infected people is very much higher than the case count. I agree that the overall severity is overblown, but flattening the curve seems like a good thing. It is nice to think there will be a hospital bed available for yourself / family / friends if it is needed.
 
I've always embraced the philosophy of "If you are forced to eat a big bucket of crap, get a big spoon and get it over with".

I think the question now is, would you rather live in a country with a one percent Corona death rate?? --

OR -- would you rather live in a country with a one percent Corona death rate AND a destroyed economy and twenty or thirty percent unemployment. jd
 
As most of you know Germans are fanatics about keeping accurate records. Their death rate from this is .04%
https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preli...infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/
This was a huge hoax with fraudulent numbers.
I agree. I also think the democrats see this as a great oppertunity to keep the restrictions on as long as possible to keep the economy down until after the elections!
It's amazing how quickly freedom and rights can be taken away and the people become sheep.
 
I've always embraced the philosophy of "If you are forced to eat a big bucket of crap, get a big spoon and get it over with".

I think the question now is, would you rather live in a country with a one percent Corona death rate?? --

OR -- would you rather live in a country with a one percent Corona death rate AND a destroyed economy and twenty or thirty percent unemployment. jd

Well said!
 
OK, we know this virus is deadly...... to a few and some don't even know they have it or had it.

I am from New York State, the very western part, only 50K in our county. We have had 35 confirmed cases and 1 death. We are hearing all kinds of stories about how COVID 19 deaths are recorded .

The statistic I want to see is the total deaths from Jan 1, 2020 to June 1, 2020 compared to the total deaths from Jan 1, 2019 till June 1, 2019. By state and county. Only than will I be able to decide just how serious the Chinese flu is/was!

I am having a hard time understanding how the infection was/is so deadly in NYC and NJ. There are many cities with dense populations and public transportation. Why was the east coast hit harder than the west coast.

I have a theory and hope I am wrong!

If your theory involves mutation of the virus, you're not wrong. NY got the more aggressive L type mutation of the bug, while the west coast got China's S (less infectious) type virus. It's possible to become infected with both types.

It's likely this will become problematic for efforts in developing a vaccine.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/scie...9-mutated-what-is-mutation-coronavirus-latest
 
Considering that SD has had 1 death in about 68000. And NYc is about 1/900 I would rather be in SD with no stay at home order. Of course that assumes NY is reporting only actual COVID deaths. It is reported by doctors, a lot of deceased were never tested, before or after death. Only visual diagnosis were made. We will not know REAL numbers for at least a couple years, that's how government works. Funny how influenza deaths stopped in NY when COVID 19 deaths started.
 
Doctors in NYC hospitals have been instructed to claim all deaths to be from the virus regardless of the actual cause. Cuomo has been milking this from day one. He claimed he need more ventilators and when sent they were found in a warehouse not even being used. The hospital ship was barely used and the the hospital setup by the National Guard was also barely used. Cuomo has begged and cried for more and more. He has been sent more help and aid than any other state and he still wants more. A big question is what is he doing with everything he has received ???
 
Amazing to me how many medical experts we have on this Gun forum . Leaves me shaking my head...:rolleyes:

I guess we're just fortunate in that respect.:)

Add to that the astounding number of statistics experts, demographics specialists, economists, political analysts, societal theorists, theologians, philosophers, and the ever present legal experts -- I can only say that we are truly blessed.

There's even a few guys around here that have a good grasp of shooting related knowledge. :rolleyes:
 
Ok. I am not a medical expert, but I think I can look at the overall information and form an opinion. Please correct me if I am wrong, but understand I won't reply because your opinion is just that - your opinion. 1. If you believe any CV19 numbers/statistics that are supplied by the "media" or our government, you probably don't have good information, and definitely not any accurate information. 2. They knew what was going to happen economically when they instituted the oppressive stay confined at home guidance, which insinuates it is backed by an agenda. 3. They instigated this thing with "projections" and models, but no facts. 3. Even though we are over a month into this thing and we live in a data driven world, I cannot say that I know one proven fact about the disease - some say this and some say that. 4. Liberal states and cities are flocking to the idea that we, as in the whole nation, are to use our money to save them from their budget mistakes. 5. Some states are using the CV19 excuse to harm mom and pop gun store owners by keeping them closed. 6. The banks and stock markets that have gorged themselves on "easy" money are getting bailed out in figures like billions and trillions. 7. The average guy isn't doing so well because if we all paid our share, the per capita portion for each citizen is over $60,000.
8. We just moved from a "be smart and protect yourself" society to one where the "government can define how we should be protected and can also demand (in some places with bad decisions) that you follow their commands. 9. The recovery from the 2008 disaster was papered over by throwing money at it, which never worked. 10. All in all, the average guys like you and me aren't doing so well, even though we might think we are.
 
I guess we're just fortunate in that respect.:)

Add to that the astounding number of statistics experts, demographics specialists, economists, political analysts, societal theorists, theologians, philosophers, and the ever present legal experts -- I can only say that we are truly blessed.

There's even a few guys around here that have a good grasp of shooting related knowledge. :rolleyes:

You forgot historians. That omission aside, we are indeed fortunate and blessed. The quality of discourse, depth of discussion and profound insights revealed on this board clearly indicates that the IQ of the average firearms enthusiast is well into the double digits. :)

Old joke... I think it's funny... Feel free to disagree.

But seriously, ballistic science is rocket science. That being the case we can all legitimately claim the title of rocket scientist. :)
 

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