You might want to get a letter of credit also, something tells me old ”Spook” doesn’t have $100,000 laying around.You'll have to give me odds if I have to predict your death specifically. I'm forecasting at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of this year, so 1/1750th of the total population. I'm guessing that the average AS member is a male over 60 years old (i.e., higher risk of death from COVID-19), so roughly a 1/1000 chance of dying from COVID-19 if my overall death prediction is correct.
Give me 1:1000 odds, put me down for $100, and send me a notarized copy of your will.
Stay At Home Order in California??
- Thread starter jds holler
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Common sense - you have the right to jump off a cliff & hope for a soft landing in some tree branches or a haystack. But coronavirus gets into infecting others via any momentary slip in protective protocol, defiance (millennials?), or ignorance (83 at one single convention in Boston, MA). Be safe, evaluate facts continually, keep home surfaces clean - hand rails, toilets, light switches, computer key boards (also a pathway for digital debilitation). After trudging around in the supermarket kick off your boots/shoes at the outside door & spray them down with some diluted cheap disinfectant, I like ODOBAN. A reasonable degree of paranoia has served me well for decades, also training in ABC warfare defense.
I have read Speer's, Inside The Third Reich, and have a feeling how some crisis like the coronavirus might be exploited using fear. I also learned that Speer smuggled out his memoir notes on toilet paper using some jail flunky- the Nuremberg verdict was 20 years jail but the Russians wanted to hang Speer. Speer's policies intended to boost Nazi war production probably killed more innocents in occupied countries like Norway via malnutrition and medical neglect than contemporary coronavirus in that no options were available to combat Speer's Nazi policies - should have hung his a**.
I have read Speer's, Inside The Third Reich, and have a feeling how some crisis like the coronavirus might be exploited using fear. I also learned that Speer smuggled out his memoir notes on toilet paper using some jail flunky- the Nuremberg verdict was 20 years jail but the Russians wanted to hang Speer. Speer's policies intended to boost Nazi war production probably killed more innocents in occupied countries like Norway via malnutrition and medical neglect than contemporary coronavirus in that no options were available to combat Speer's Nazi policies - should have hung his a**.
Coyotefurharvester
Silver $$ Contributor
Technically no one is dying from COVID 19, they died while having the virus in their respiratory system. Most people have had under lying health issues that prevents their system from forming antibodies fast enough to protect the respiratory system from pneumonia. What we are seeing is an illness that spreads more efficiently through comprised populations. What is being done is preventing healthcare facilities and healthcare workers and other essential services from being overwhelmed. Actions being taken are and will change the rate of hospitalization, it may or may not alter the number of individuals who are infected. That will require vaccination or an environmental block of the virus(as an example when cold/flu season "ends").
I never said this was a BAD idea, just that he has no authority to do so as there is no case to invoke martial law and the health codes DO NOT address isolation or quarantine of healthy people.
Spook
Captured too late to be fully domesticated.
You'll have to give me odds if I have to predict your death specifically. I'm forecasting at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of this year, so 1/1750th of the total population. I'm guessing that the average AS member is a male over 60 years old (i.e., higher risk of death from COVID-19), so roughly a 1/1000 chance of dying from COVID-19 if my overall death prediction is correct.
Give me 1:1000 odds, put me down for $100, and send me a notarized copy of your will.
I'll go a hundo, even money, for the 200,000 you predict dead between now and midnight 12/25/20.
we need to agree on who's stats we use.
That's certainly the goal. It didn't work in Italy, and in less than 2 weeks, when the number of cases in the U.S. goes well past 100,000, it will become clear that it was "too little, too late" here, as well.
Many east Asian countries really got on top of the outbreak -- massive testing, strict (often forced) quarantine for infected individuals, comprehensive contact tracing and quarantine of those contacts, and rapid deployment of specialized quarantine/treatment facilities.
None of those things have been done in most of the rest of the world (and some probably never could have been done, such as enforced quarantine in the U.S.). The U.S. already has more cases than South Korea ever did, and more than twice as many deaths. We're going to catch up to China in about a week.
In the U.S. we are still very much in the logarithmic growth phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (see below). Any mitigation measures taken today have a 2-week lag time, during which the number of cases and deaths will very likely increase by 50x (or more). The horse is out of the barn.
Excellent! CDC? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
P.S. This is a bet that I would be very happy to lose, especially since one of my pathologist colleagues died from it the day before yesterday.
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Spook
Captured too late to be fully domesticated.
Done! CDC stats as long as its a republican administration (because we both know how much dummycrats lie) for at least 200,000 dead ?
Agreed. Hard to imagine a Democrat in the White House before 20 Jan 2021, but these are strange times.
Spook
Captured too late to be fully domesticated.
Shucks Jim, I aint even gots two dimes to rub t'gether, an thassa fact.
I was hopin' to luck into Toby's hundo so I could put it toward a bottle of Don Julio I've had on layaway since last Christmas.
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jghoghunter
Gold $$ Contributor
I don't think its a hoax. I think they are up to something that we don't know about. YET!
I said in an earlier post on this site or another when all this is over look and see what is changed that was probably in the works from the start
Serious stuff, lots of confusion and misinformation requiring caution and common sense, not panic or autocratic supervisory control intended to diminish individual wise decisions and allow harmful intrusions. Toby Bradshaw's log graph if switched to linear would go way above my computer screen or scaled down to about 1/2 inch wide. The coronavirus stuff gets into shooting with accelerated gun buying, ammo/component shortages, closing of gun shops (D.C.'s only gun store shut down). I fear political exploitation of an hugely expanding, undeniable, harmful coronavirus infection situation and this exploitation will be contrary to our individual constitutional rights, like assembly, guns, speech. Like after the coronavirus is gone will the contrary stuff remain?
Population of the USA is about 330 million. IF 1% died that would only be 3.3 million. The death rate from the virus is less than .5%, so I guess everyone in the country will have to get it twice.
If you are scared, fine go hide under a rock. Meanwhile the rest of use want to work, make money and continue on with life.
I find it really funny how some people are willing to throw the constitution under the bus for every thing that happens. The saying "If it saves one life", makes me puke!
If you are scared, fine go hide under a rock. Meanwhile the rest of use want to work, make money and continue on with life.
I find it really funny how some people are willing to throw the constitution under the bus for every thing that happens. The saying "If it saves one life", makes me puke!
I do not like how we are being forced to give up our freedoms but I am older with health issues and not willing to take a chance with my health but I am all for other people doing it if that is what you choose to do
jds holler
Gold $$ Contributor
I agree. This is like finding a nest of creepy dangerous black widow spiders under your house and using a flame thrower to take them out. When you're standing amid the smoldering wreckage of your home, you can pat your own back for saving the kids from a dangerous spider bite. jd
jepp2
Gold $$ Contributor
I'm interested in what your source was.
11299/272167 = 4.15% * 330,000,000 = 13,700,000
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