@Clark Apply your analysis to Italy and specifically the regions of Lombardy and Veneto. Here's some data for Italian deaths by region in 2018 to help you with it. https://www.statista.com/statistics/569435/number-of-deaths-in-italy-by-region/ There have been more than 15,300 deaths in Italy with those two regions, particularly Lombardy, taking the biggest hits. There remain over 88,000 active cases, with currently circa 5% deemed serious or critical. And that's all with some of the toughest NPI implemented in Europe. (US implementation of NPI doesn't come close.) Now imagine an unchecked virus.