COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[spclark]

I encourage everyone to reread this entire thread. Few were exhibiting “critical thinking” based on sound factual data while there was an abundance of “emotional” prognostications based on specious facts and comparisons.

I can't blame that lack of "critical thinking" on anything but the MSM. It's devilishly hard to sort 'sound factual data' from the specious noise of biased, commercial media activity.

The authorities in China knew two months before a mass exodus from Wuhan that there was something there that was killing people. Yet they actively chose not to divulge what they knew at that time to the rest of the world.

Meanwhile the WHO stood by, parroting the "official" Chinese propaganda.

Those are facts.

Where I live my county's confirmed case-free... so far. The county to the immediate north today has 19 cases as of today, no fatalities. I learned today that those 19 cases stem from one individual bringing the virus back with them after they had traveled to Florida for spring break four weeks ago.

Perhaps if China had been more transparent about what they new back in December that young individual would have thought twice about having their spring break.

 

[6BRinNZ]

Relatively speaking they shut the border quickly. But closing the border for 4 weeks doesn't do anything if the rest of the world still has it. And NZ, like any country, can't keep its border closed indefinitely. A vaccine is still many, many months away.

mmm - yeah maybe - giving thousands 2 days to stream back in before they closed it without a hard out quarantine policy was probably not the best idea given until that point in time 100% infections were from overseas travel. (data known at the time of decision making)
Border - I think that is why serious questions are being asked - whats the plan here - particularly if they take on the social and economic hardship of stamp it out. At least with a closed border small/medium and online business and can get up and running again to some extent. Not saying that would work for other countries.
I hope your family and friends in HB are doing ok.
All up a sh1ty situation its seems to be about the best steps to mitigate the damage, health, economic and social.

 

[INTJ]

That brings up a question I have had for a while. While I get it that a poorly vetted flu vaccine in the 1960s caused lots of issues, we have come a long way since then. Now we are so cautious it takes 12-18 months to develop a vaccine. Isn't there a middle ground where we could have a vaccine by this fall? We now have a lot of experience with flu vaccines so this wouldn't be a repeat of the 1962 vaccine experience.

I ask this question as one who had 5 of the 6 Anthrax shots and subsequent health issues as a result. However, most did not have issues with the vaccine.

 

[SGK]

Perhaps if China had been more transparent about what they new back in December that young individual would have thought twice about having their spring break.

I doubt it. They simply didn't care if they got the virus. They didn't want to miss out on their Spring Break which they'd planned for weeks. The videos of kids being interviewed were extraordinary.

I did a "House Party" video with 4 very good friends in London today. They have just finished their second week of strict 'stay at home'. (Laurie listed the very few reasons for which one is allowed out of their house currently in the UK.) They all knew several people who'd tested positive having developed significant symptoms. One felt he'd quite possibly had it a couple of weeks ago, albeit mildly. That brings things even closer to home.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Reality of 14 days ago isn’t the reality today.

For anyone with an adequate background in quantitative biology it was easy enough to see what was happening 2 weeks ago.

 

[Stan Taylor]

My personal opinion all this is a blatant form of chemical warfare from China point blank.

 

[Delfuego]

For anyone with an adequate background in quantitative biology it was easy enough to see what was happening 2 weeks ago.

I am an idiot and know nothing of quantitative biology and posted this 2 weeks ago. It was and is pretty damn obvious. That's when I gave up. Most everyone in this county is too self-important to think past themselves. Politicians and citizens think we "buy" our way out of this. Dumber still are people are hoarding ammo. We're still name calling and falling into or collective tribes instead of trying come together as fellow Americans to solve the problem. Our fathers and grandfathers that fought 2 world wars, the depression and helped build this nation are either spinning in their graves or will be soon.

http://forum.accurateshooter.com/threads/age-and-covid-19.4002340/#post-37743703

See you in hell f'ers

 

[INTJ]

.

For anyone with an adequate background in quantitative biology it was easy enough to see what was happening 2 weeks ago.

The real experts didn't know the future two weeks ago and neither did you. No one has been able to accurately model this and we won't be able to until this passes. If you turn out to be right then you just made a lucky guess.

 

[Delfuego]

The real experts...

Real experts like you? Quoting political rags for "data" about infectious diseases? You are the problem. Go back to your echo-chamber, quit spreading nonsense, trying to be right and get the last word in.

I am so tired of the hype. We are being stupid about all this. We should absolutely be cautious, severely quarantine the most at risk, practice social distancing, and work on meds and vaccines. However, if we are quarantined on national level much more than 2-3 weeks we risk a depression, which will have much greater impact than COVID-19. If no one one knew about the Wuhan Virus, at the end of the flu season all we would have noticed is that it was a tougher flu season than normal.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/a-data-driven-look-at-the-wuhan-coronavirus.php

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/1...depression-outweigh-the-risks-of-coronavirus/

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

.


The real experts didn't know the future two weeks ago and neither did you. No one has been able to accurately model this and we won't be able to until this passes. If you turn out to be right then you just made a lucky guess.

Here's what we knew 2 weeks ago:
1. Essentially everyone on the planet is susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, with no vaccine available until a year or more. This translates to exponential growth in cases and deaths, which was already apparent in the U.S. (doubling time for deaths 2-3 days, as in Italy, and unlike in China or South Korea).
2. With 206 U.S. deaths 2 weeks ago (19 March), how many doublings are required to hit 122,000 deaths? Answer: a little more than 9 doublings.
3. How long will it take to reach these 9 doublings? Answer: 3-4 weeks (i.e., by mid-to-late April), if nothing else changes.

Predicting >122,000 COVID-19 deaths by Christmas (>9 months from 2 weeks ago) isn't a risky bet. The doubling time for deaths could increase from the current number by a factor of 7 and still hit 122,000 deaths by Christmas.

Here's another way to think about it. No country has a COVID-19 case fatality rate less than 1% [currently 2.7% in the U.S.]. To get to 122,000 deaths at a 1% case fatality rate only 12.2 million Americans would have to be infected -- 4% of a population in which 100% are susceptible.

I'm not predicting exactly how many U.S. COVID-19 deaths there will be, just that there will be many more than any seasonal flu in the past decade.

 

[SGK]

Some good news for Italy with the number of people in intensive care with COVID-19 declining for the first time. Spain's daily deaths also seem to be plateauing. Not so in many other European countries. The UK is still tightening restrictions. The US is still a long way behind in implementing - and enforcing - nationwide NPI and will likely see a much higher death toll as a result. I'd guess it's another month before Italy and Spain can breath a sigh of relief. More like 2-3 months for the US. Fatalities will continue until there's a widely distributed vaccine but at least the Ro should be a lot lower. The challenge for Europe will be that which Asia now faces: how to get back to work and yet maintain social distancing to avoid another explosion of cases.

 

[rebel]

After reading this entire thread I am confident this should be required reading for any folks quarantined here.

It's a cautionary tale.

 

[SGK]

Ha! I have friends in Europe in their third or fourth weeks of total lockdown. They are certainly beginning to forget what day it is. (Only Manhattan is even remotely close to what they're going through.)

 

[Clark]

There are 7.3 billion people worldwide.
COVID-19 has caused 1.2 million deaths worldwide
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
100 million people die worldwide every year
The world got a 1.2 % increase in death, without the media, no one would notice

The USA has 327 million people
COVID-19 has caused 8,000 deaths in the USA
3 million people die in the USA every year
The USA got a 0.3% increase in death, without the media, no one would notice

The state of WA has 7.6 million people
COVID-19 has caused 319 deaths
100,000 people die every year in WA
WA got a 0.3% increase in death, without the media, no one would notice

In my town there are 22,000 people
COVID-19 has caused 2 deaths in my town
200 people die every year in my town
My town got a 1.0% increase in death, without the media, no one would notice.

 

[SGK]

Early days. Keep your head in the sand while the rest of us act to ensure COVID doesn't have a material impact on your numbers. There ought to be a cruise ship destined for Venice with onward transportation to Lombardy for anyone who thinks COVID is a non-issue.

 

[3Ackleys]

My personal opinion all this is a blatant form of chemical warfare from China point blank.

Maybe... but if so, they are not very good at being evil geniuses.
If they were they would have probably:
NOT released it on their own population FIRST.
WOULD come up with a vaccination FIRST.
NOT release the gene sequence to the world for study.
NOT be sending medical supplies to us.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Case fatality rates for 22 Mar and 4 Apr. These are the countries that were the top 10 in total confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 22 Mar. South Korea has since dropped to #17. Note that all 10 countries now have case fatality rates above 1% (i.e., >10 times the seasonal flu). Of course, testing rates vary across countries. Asymptomatic cases (lowering the case fatality rate estimate) are more likely to be detected in countries with a lot of testing (e.g., Switzerland has tested almost twice as many per capita as any of the other countries on this list, and almost four times as many as the U.S.).

Only China and South Korea have more recovered cases than active cases. The lag between case detection and death probably accounts for the increasing case fatality rate estimates in countries where the proportion of active cases is still high.

Data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/:

Country/Case fatality rate 22 Mar/4 Apr
US 1.3% 2.7%
Spain 6.2% 9.5%
Italy 9.3% 12.3%
Germany 0.4% 1.5%
France 4.2% 8.4%
China 4.0% 4.1%
Iran 7.8% 6.2%
UK 4.9% 10.3%
Switzerland 1.4% 3.2%
S Korea 1.2% 1.7%

 

[SGK]

The documentary series "Pandemic" available on Netflix, filmed in 2019, could not have been more prescient.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

There are 7.3 billion people worldwide.
COVID-19 has caused 1.2 million deaths worldwide
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
100 million people die worldwide every year
The world got a 1.2 % increase in death, without the media, no one would notice

...

So you're comparing annual mortality from other causes to a pandemic that is 2-3 months old in most of the world, and still growing exponentially?

You'll have to explain why we shouldn't ignore your "analysis".

 

[JimT]

I can hear it now :”The media said we were supposed to have 240,000 deaths and we only had 100,000! Just another case of over hyping something for ratings!”

Of course they will ignore the unprecedented steps we took to keep the death toll from being in the millions and, hopefully, below 240,000.