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Powder selection,... how do you choose?

I have a question about how you pick a powder for a "new" caliber. I'm not listing any caliber because I don't want suggestions, I want to know how you came to your choice. Everybody posts "let the gun tell you what it likes" How do you know without trying everything, maybe it likes what you haven't tried better than what you have?
Besides the obvious like books and the net, friends using this one or that one what is the procedure on finding the right powder. Anybody that has been loading for any major length of time will tell you that the powder makes the load and bullets make the distance. You know what want bullet you want to use, primers are easy enough to tune but which powder? Here is your predicament....
New caliber (to you, whatever it may be but something you have NOT shot before)
Your choice of bullet (brand and weight)
Primers on hand
Brass prepped and ready to load.
You pick out your book/books and find the caliber only to see that a huge selection of powders is listed for your bullet weight and it covers the whole spectrum from fast to slow (example LT-32 all the way to Varget). Your using the same length barrel as the book and the book has your weight of bullet, so do your start at the fast end or slow end in the list? Do you try all that you have on hand? I'm curious how some of the top tier shooters on here make their selection and why?
(BTW this is the stuff you think up when family can't come over for Christmas because of Covid)
 
Here's where manuals do help. I look for powders that give the most velocity and best case fill percentage. Sometimes the second place powder using these criteria works best. For instance in my 260 Rem H4831 gives better case fill and velocity, but H4350 gives me the best accuracy with adequate velocity. This is just what I do and I'm no expert
 
I'll use my 20 Vartarg with the 55 Berger as an example. No one was doing it and everybody just told me that it was a stupid idea. I guess 3000fps is too slow to work :p. Back on track: there was data for lighter bullets, and there was data for the parent 221, as well as the smaller 17 Mach IV. what you'll see is that you go to a slower powder as you increase bullet weight and you go to a slower powder as you decrease bore size. So IMR 4198 works well in the 221, but is too fast for the 17. I found the slowest powder recommended, Ramshot xterminator, and started there. Low powder charges of slow powder can cause hang-fires, but if you've gone to a slow enough powder, you should run out of room before you pressure out, meaning it should be safe to go somewhat warm on the load to start and that load should mostly fill the case. I use a chronograph to inform me on that initial development. There is no magic, if you get 3300fps and linear extrapolation from existing data says you should only get 3100 at normal expected max, then you've got a lot of pressure, regardless of the lack of "signs" so you have to reign in the greed and stop when you're at a sensible speed and not push too far. That's my take on remaining safe with wildcats that you can't find data for at least.
 
So I reread your post and realized that I hadn't answered your question really. I start as slow as possible when I don't have better info available and then work to faster powders if the slow ones aren't working well. I've found that the right powder shoots well at most any powder charge, so I don't waste much time if it doesn't show anything promising early on.

I got hung up with my 22BR because RL17 was giving me great speed and I thought I could tune it in with seating depth and working on fine powder charges, but it simply did not shoot as small as IMR4350, regardless of what I tried. iMR4350, with no tuning, shot tiny from the very first load. The trick is realizing that you're being too stubborn and have moved beyond "due diligence" into straight perseveration.
 
I think if you try every powder listed in every loading manual and then vary projectiles, load weights, seating depth, neck tension and throw in some weather changes, you probably would have to spend you whole life chasing what may or may not turn out the best. So for someone as new at this as me, I start with what the experienced shooters are using and see how it works for me.

Bob
 
Lyman, Sierra, and Nosler publish "most accurate" load tested for each of their bullets. Good place to start. For most traditional calibers there is well established bullet / powder combos that work almost all the time.

This forum also a good source for non-traditional calibers where there is limited published data.

I measure max COL for all brands of bullets that I use and try to start load development about .020" off the lands provided this length fits the magazine and there is enough seating depth for adequate bullet tension, typically I'm using at least one bullet diameter inside the neck of the case.

Matching the bullet to the twist rate of the rifle for optimum results is also something to consider.

Amount of case fill is another issue to consider. I personally avoid heavily compressed powder charges.
 
So I reread your post and realized that I hadn't answered your question really. I start as slow as possible when I don't have better info available and then work to faster powders if the slow ones aren't working well. I've found that the right powder shoots well at most any powder charge, so I don't waste much time if it doesn't show anything promising early on.

I got hung up with my 22BR because RL17 was giving me great speed and I thought I could tune it in with seating depth and working on fine powder charges, but it simply did not shoot as small as IMR4350, regardless of what I tried. iMR4350, with no tuning, shot tiny from the very first load. The trick is realizing that you're being too stubborn and have moved beyond "due diligence" into straight perseveration.
This, and what I have on the shelf for starters.
 
Like the above, I spend time searching forums for "pet loads" just to get a idea of what others are shooting and having luck with, plus advice from my local shop owners, and what the manuals say are "most accurate". So, for example, .308Wn...you'll certainly have Varget, IMR4064, VVN140. Then you see the price of VVN140 so you scratch that...then you try to meter IMR4064....then you stock up on Varget....lol

I'm kidding...but kinda not....I've also learned for .308 case capacity is an issue especially with copper bullets, which has turned my head toward ball powders for copper (CFE223, RamTAC).

That's a couple of examples of thoughts that arise based on a specific load variation for a specific caliber.
 
I'm hardly anywhere near a top tier shooter!

Most of my reloading is for hunting rifles. Doesn't mean i would sacrifice accuracy.

I'll use my new to me barrel for my example. 24" Savage sporter in 257 Roberts. Plan is to ream the chamber to 257 Roberts AI.
With the added powder charge, i'm looking at the 115gr Berger VLD & 115gr Nosler Ballistic Tip mostly. (I already shoot these in my Ruger 77 MKII in 257 Roberts)
Cases will be 7X57 Mauser necked to 257 & fireformed.
Primers i have are Fed 210M.

I'll dig through the manuals & online to look at powders giving decent (i don't need max) velocities with a case fill of 85-104%.
If it's a powder i don't already have, i'll get some.

My issue is trying powders in cartridges not listed, or tested with a specific bullet.
Example would be my 284 Win with Alliant Power Pro 4000 & 150gr ABLR.
Old Alliant data only covers 110gr bullets.
There is NO data for PP4000 in the 284 Win.
And Quickload doesn't even list the Power Pro powders yet.

Just start low, and work up.
 
Most certainly not top-tier, but I shoot a fair amount and the groups tend to be small...

I am developing an all-new caliber right now, a .25 based on a .308 case optimized for efficiency. Here is my methodology:
- I researched both sides of my round, one caliber up and one caliber down, and close to case capacity. In this case I am looking at 6mm Creedmoor and 6.5 Creedmoor.
- I choose the slower side of the burn range. The slower powders tend to be case-fillers and in my experience have been easier to tune. In this case I am looking at the 4350 "window".
- My case is almost the same capacity as a .257 Robert's AI but shorter and with straighter walls. I internet the hell out of the .257 Improved cases and lean towards the 4350 on the fast end, and 4831 on the slow end.
- I call the bullet manufacturer, in this case it is Logan at Blackjack, and have a focused conversation about what I am trying to accomplish and pick his brains for input. I find that Sierra is involved, and I give them a call and pick their brains. I know Phil Hohman at Berger worked at Sierra for a long time, so I bring the cartridge up as a sideline to another conversation and pick his brain.
- I go to the local shops to see what I can find. I really lean to the temperature insensitive powders. I can get H4350, Win Staball6.5, H4831SC, RL16, and I can internet order Viht 160.
- I start with 1 pound of each and load ladders as consistently as possible. I have my own method of ladders that works for me with a decent round count, so 1 pound usually tells me if a powder is going to be easy to tune or not. Wide and stable velocity nodes is what I am after.

In this case I get three good powders, H4831SC, Viht 160, and Win Staball6.5. The race is on to get at least 10 pounds of each. I also look for enough components of the same lot. I can only get Viht by special order, Win Staball6.5 I already have 11 pounds of, and I am down to 4 pounds of H4831SC and don't know when I will get more. So Win Staball6.5 gets the nod for next season's PRS and FPR. I will continue to collect H4831SC and try a new work-up when I get enough to last a season.

That's how I do.
 
Most certainly not top-tier, but I shoot a fair amount and the groups tend to be small...

I am developing an all-new caliber right now, a .25 based on a .308 case optimized for efficiency. Here is my methodology:
- I researched both sides of my round, one caliber up and one caliber down, and close to case capacity. In this case I am looking at 6mm Creedmoor and 6.5 Creedmoor.
- I choose the slower side of the burn range. The slower powders tend to be case-fillers and in my experience have been easier to tune. In this case I am looking at the 4350 "window".
- My case is almost the same capacity as a .257 Robert's AI but shorter and with straighter walls. I internet the hell out of the .257 Improved cases and lean towards the 4350 on the fast end, and 4831 on the slow end.
- I call the bullet manufacturer, in this case it is Logan at Blackjack, and have a focused conversation about what I am trying to accomplish and pick his brains for input. I find that Sierra is involved, and I give them a call and pick their brains. I know Phil Hohman at Berger worked at Sierra for a long time, so I bring the cartridge up as a sideline to another conversation and pick his brain.
- I go to the local shops to see what I can find. I really lean to the temperature insensitive powders. I can get H4350, Win Staball6.5, H4831SC, RL16, and I can internet order Viht 160.
- I start with 1 pound of each and load ladders as consistently as possible. I have my own method of ladders that works for me with a decent round count, so 1 pound usually tells me if a powder is going to be easy to tune or not. Wide and stable velocity nodes is what I am after.

In this case I get three good powders, H4831SC, Viht 160, and Win Staball6.5. The race is on to get at least 10 pounds of each. I also look for enough components of the same lot. I can only get Viht by special order, Win Staball6.5 I already have 11 pounds of, and I am down to 4 pounds of H4831SC and don't know when I will get more. So Win Staball6.5 gets the nod for next season's PRS and FPR. I will continue to collect H4831SC and try a new work-up when I get enough to last a season.

That's how I do.
Try some IMR4955, 1 tic slower and easier to come by than h4831sc.
 
Developing any load for a custom case, or even a new chambering for you, is mostly common sense.
As was said, the easiest thing to do is find a case that has a similar capacity, and start with that load data. A Chronograph is essential.
You already have a good idea what velocities you are looking for, so approach this figure, keeping an eye on what the rifle is telling you. Bolt lift and the outside radius of the primer are still good indications as to what is happening.
As far as powder goes, the general rule is the powder that gives as close to 100 percent density at the velocity you are looking far gives the best results. As a good example, in the 6PPC, 133 continually gives great results. The loads most of us shoot have to be loaded with a long drop tube at a slow trickle. That is 100 percent density. That’s what works.

In the 30BR, shooting 112 grn bullets, 4198 continues to be the go to powder. My favorite load is 34.8 grns behind my 112. The bullet is touching the powder when seated.”

I am also working with my regular 6BR, .060 throat. Bart’s 80’s in a 1-12 twist barrel loves Accurate 2495, 33,5 grns. This is getting close to a 100 percent density load. With my own 103 grn in a 8 twist, I was surprised when I tried N150. It should be too slow, but 30.1 grns gives a flat 2900 FPS with great accuracy. It is not a 100 percent density load, which leads me to believe that it is a little faster than the Burn Rate Charts indicate.

Keep in mind. The laws of physics don’t get repealed with every new idea. If you develop a case that has the same capacity as an already existing case, you are not miraculously going to find another 200 FPS with all other perimeters being equal. You can develop something with a little more efficiency, but velocity is still achieved by a certain amount of pressure behind a certain bullet out of a given length of barrel.
 
I recently chambered a barrel in 33-28 Nosler and worked up a load. I had never worked with this cartridge before and didn't know anyone who had. It has a case capacity 2 grains less than a 340 Wby, and I knew that H4831 works well in the 340 with 225 grain bullets.

Since I had just discovered that RL23 was a lot like H4831 except it gave 50 FPS more in my 300 WSM BR rifle, I started with RL23 in the 33-28. Wasn't impressed. A friend said to try RL26, but I thought it was too slow. Since RL23 didn't work I figured I had nothing to lose and found the magic. RL26 gave me a LOT more speed and excellent accuracy.
 
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The best part of the OP’s question is the fact that even the best books and manuals don’t answer this question directly as part of the loading manual.

I was very lucky to always be surrounded by generous, accomplished loaders who gave me the best answers to your question. Occasionally you see the answers directly in a text when the topic of Pet Loads or What The Pros Use or similar kinds of articles come up. But there is no evidence of the math or path used from the listing of powders to those recommendations, nor a way to go backward from those successful powders to the loading manual lists and see a pattern that can be used for uncharted territory.

The best way to find the “best powder” is to hope you are taking a path well traveled and learn from the experienced high performers. Only a few patterns exist in looking backwards. Concepts like burn rate charts, fill volumes, chemistry, etc., can be a guide, but not the answer to the OPs question.

Past good experience tends to tell us that certain patterns of case volumes and bullet weights play better than some others. So for example if we are talking about 223 versus 50 BMG we are out of luck. But if we are talking 223 versus 204, we can use our experience with 223 in mid weight bullets versus heavy bullets and assume we might find a similar pattern to what might work well in 204.

Not that there are any guarantees in life about finding similitude between what we say is good performance in one cartridge and then finding it in another, but when folks you can trust have already tried several and their advice makes sense based on things you already know well, then their advice combines with yours and you get your goal faster and with less waste.
 
First google will quickly tell you what others have found to work well. Second, Quick Load has a nice search function which will generate a list of powders/charge weights to match a specified pressure, velocity, barrel time for OBT, etc. The QL results are very useful to narrow down the options in terms of achieving a desired optimum barrel time with the least pressure, or other criteria of your choice.
 
Affordable chronographs, access to company data via the Internet, research on forums like this, and QuickLOAD or other internal ballistics programs give us a huge amount more information and options than we had when I started handloading. The main source of information back then - and still far, far more useful IMO today than is generally given credit for - was / is printed loading manuals. Despite the cost, I try to keep a selection of the latest editions available. Read across several and you often see the common denominators in powder choice and recommendations.

The last couple of years has been a bumper period for users of hard copy like myself with new editions from Hornady, Lyman, Sierra, and just arrived at the doorstep on Christmas Eve morning Nosler #9. Sierra Ed VI is a gem frankly - a VAST amount of data. All of these books are being sold at way below their production costs never mind the R&D outlays underpinning them.

One possible issue for us in the UK (and the rest of Europe) is the EU 'Reach' Health & Safety programme which has robbed us of the older IMR rifle grades, all Hodgdon Australian manufactured extruded powders, and all older US produced ball/spherical powders like H335 and BL-C(2). Sadly, the latest Hornady manual is virtually useless for us as some tables only have a single powder still available here and Vihtavuori has nearly disappeared.

A long-time favourite which I still dip into every now and then despite its powder recommendations being yesterday's grades and again mostly unavailable here is the huge Wolfe Publishing omnibus edition of Ken Waters' 'Pet Loads' articles from 30 years of Rifle and Handloader magazines.
 

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