Great sample size on the poll results, very interesting to see. Fairly even split between people buying and people not buying.
Barring some unexpected development I believe we are at the tail-end of this panic induced demand spike. Looking at 9mm ammo which was almost impossible to find at all for a while, then at ridiculous prices of 70 cents for 115gr fmj, it is now available for ~30 cents a round from multiple sources on ammoseek.
Another indicator is BCGs for AR-15s. There was a period of about 9 months where they were extremely difficult to find at all and when they were in stock it was at prices of $150 - $200 for vanilla BCGs. Now you can (again) buy toolcraft branded nitride BCGs at $70 each from PSA, similar to pre-panic prices. The PSA branded ones will probably be $50 or $60 in the not too distant future.
Same thing with stripped uppers which were almost impossible to find and this black friday I saw several advertised at $45 - $50.
Primers and powder are a lagging indicator for at least a couple of reasons. First, the number of producers is much lower, and the demand side of the consumer packaged reloading components is fairly small (compared to say the demand side of loaded ammunition). Since the supply side is not that large to begin with, any disruptions such as spikes in demand become more pronounced.
When we enter a panic cycle and buy everything we see we empty out the supply side of the equation very quickly. The producers ramp up to what they can with existing production lines but they are not going to build out new lines for a panic driven demand spike as they have seen this several times before. They, and the distributors and retailers take the opportunity to bask in this feast we create for them because they know it will be followed by a relative famine where the somewhat small demand side of the market (that is all of us) are finally filled to the brim with powders and primers to last us all two lifetimes.
In the not too distant future the demand side will subside and the increased production will start filling up shelves at the producers, distributors and retailers. When enough of us see CCI small pistol primer magnum primers in stock and think to ourselves 'what the heck would I do with another 5000 small pistol primer magnum primers?', and subsequently don't hit the buy button the retailers will have to resort to first removing limits, then reducing prices in order to move the stale inventory off the shelves.
Will Varget and BR4s ever be well stocked at every retailer? Probably not as they never were but I am fairly certain that the BS of $150/brick with a one brick limit will be gone. Perhaps $80 will be the new price for BR4s and $60 for regular primers but my wager is that by next black friday, and probably well before then, there will be deals offered on select components.
If I am wrong I will sadly stand corrected.
