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Keyhole at 1 mile

I took a quick look at JBM. At your stated muzzle velocity of 3117 FPS you are going subsonic between 1600 and 1700 yards. By the time your bullet makes the 1 mile mark it is in the mid 900 FPS range.
With a 42 FPS ES subsonic is somewhere close to the 1500 yard mark and getting very close to 900 FPS at 1 mile.
You would improve your odds for success by switching to a Berger 105 or 109 and tightening up the ES to at or very near single-digit.
I don't think my ES is getting any better until I switch to lapua brass and better bullets. Probably not till my next barrel or next rifle.
 
Hats off to what you’ve accomplished and your continued endeavor.

Personally I’d shoot a bigger bore. Even stepping up to just 6.5 will still prove challenging enough, and the extra energy you carry out that far will go to great lengths to help you connect.

I think the 6mm is gassed by a mile.
 
I don't think my ES is getting any better until I switch to lapua brass and better bullets. Probably not till my next barrel or next rifle.
Then you may be disappointed when you switch brass and bulelts and still see high ES.
You don't mention what powder and primer you're using but wondering if you have done any testing with different component other than bullet and brass. In my 6 Creedmoor it really came to life with RL16. The accuracy node was very wide and on a calm day I can turn in 1/2MOA accuracy out to 1200 yards.
I haven't shot it any farther. That's why I have a 300NM 35* IMP and a 338LM.
 
Looks unstable to me- need a faster twist, or a better bullet- take your pick-



Good shooting !!!!
My 8 twist xc hammers with 108 berger bullets at 3030 fps . Im at 1000’ elevation

Just read the 1 mile distance. Never tried that with them. Just 1000 yards max
 
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Then you may be disappointed when you switch brass and bulelts and still see high ES.
You don't mention what powder and primer you're using but wondering if you have done any testing with different component other than bullet and brass. In my 6 Creedmoor it really came to life with RL16. The accuracy node was very wide and on a calm day I can turn in 1/2MOA accuracy out to 1200 yards.
I haven't shot it any farther. That's why I have a 300NM 35* IMP and a 338LM.
I am shooting H4350, fed primer, weighed powder on a creedmoor scale to +\- 0.02 gr, amp annealer, .002 shoulder bump, and so on. I haven't done extensive testing yet. I can shoot a 20 shot group that measures .6 moa at 100. I don't really shoot many 5 shot groups anymore. Its a tikka action with a bartlein barrel. I shoot off of a caldwell stable table with bipod most the time.

This gun was just to shoot prairie dogs. For that it is awesome and the ammo and accuracy is suitable for that task.

I never imagined i would find all these places right by my house on public land. There are targets all over. Huge 4x4 plates at 650 and one at 2 miles 3575 as measured on GE. Awesome gong at 1100. Wood targets at 1000 and 1 mile. I made my own spot at 500. I never thought id ever shoot so far. The 1100 yard gong is too easy. Now i shoot it from different positions to make it harder.

My tract toric is also maxed out. Im dialed 54 moa and holding 17.5 at a mile. Dang I could have got the 34mm for just a little more, but never thought id possibly use all the elevation.

My gun budget is tapped out right now. This barrel is at 500 something rounds. Thinking i will burn it up and when I rebarrel ill try 80 gr eld VT for the dogs or stick with the eldm. Then build something bigger. Not sure if i should go all out with a 300 norma though. Everything about it is a step up in price. Im thinking a 6.5 prc or 7 prcw maybe. Or possibly 7 prc or 300 prc.

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IMG_20231223_223648.jpg
 
I just realized those ES numbers are from the last batch. They were not annealed and weighed on a chargemaster. I changed a couple things in my process too. I need to get the garmin out next time to check this batch.
The initial optic on my 338LM was a Tract Toric ELR 4.5-30 with 34mm tube. It was advertised as having 27 mils elevation but I ran out about 1 mil short of the needed dial up for 1800 yards. With the elevation maxed out the muzzle and T5 brake shadowed the reticle and made it tough to get a good hold. The rifle now has a NF ATACR 5-25x56 mrad optic and that should fix that. That is the same option that I have on the 300NM and it got me to 1800 with enough elevation to spare to get me at least to 2200. Either is pretty difficult to find in these parts. I do envy all who can just ride out to the desert and send them long.
 
The initial optic on my 338LM was a Tract Toric ELR 4.5-30 with 34mm tube. It was advertised as having 27 mils elevation but I ran out about 1 mil short of the needed dial up for 1800 yards. With the elevation maxed out the muzzle and T5 brake shadowed the reticle and made it tough to get a good hold. The rifle now has a NF ATACR 5-25x56 mrad optic and that should fix that. That is the same option that I have on the 300NM and it got me to 1800 with enough elevation to spare to get me at least to 2200. Either is pretty difficult to find in these parts. I do envy all who can just ride out to the desert and send them long.
Im thinking their new one with 160 moa adjustment and maybe a 30 or 40 moa rail.
 
I tried again today. I was alone so spotting was super hard. Mirage was worse than last time. First shot base of the target on left edge! Just a few feet off! I fired 51 rds. I see at least 11 hits. The one that hit the jug looks like it was a keyhole or possibly a skip. Seems about 20% keyhole, consistent with last time. Some also seem like maybe they are wobbling but not tumbling. Its hard to tell cuz the paper was not tight. About halfway through the ammo the wind got the paper on the bottom right. I could have made more hits while the paper was blowing. I could see a lot of impacts in the dirt just short of the target and a few beyond the target. Need a plate that swings and someone with a spotter. Being alone too I cant drive to check the target snd leave my stuff. Last time we checked the target every 10 shots.

I had the garmin out this time. Not sure if it is just this batch or what, but it was 3065 fps instead of 3117 . SD of 12.

I put a flat bag rider on the stock since last time and I haven't checked zero. Im wondering if that is making the shots trend a little low. Last time same dope they were trending slightly high. For sure less muzzle rise and recoils more straight back.

This is actually 1770 yards + or - 4 yards. I measured it with gps tape measure app. Wanted to make sure im not cheating with 1756 yards lol
DSC_2328.jpgDSC_2330.jpgDSC_2329.jpgDSC_2305~2.jpg
 
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Even with my LR-3 camera it took me me three trips out to shoot the group in the photo. I could only use two flags. One in front of the bench and one in front of the target. I got out real early before the wind came up and there was very little mirage. My target was vertical and all the holes were slightly elongated.
 

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I have seen this several times over the years.
Now that I see the angle the jug was hit and how many impact are 10 to 20 feet in front I do think they skipped. Can't believe it didn't deform more. Next time I will fire 10, check target. Go up 1 moa and fire 10 check target. Keep repeating till all are high. Im within 2 or 3 moa on elevation I think.

I think I learned a lesson for ELR. Better off a little high than low so the skips don't give you false feedback.
 
I tried again today. I was alone so spotting was super hard. Mirage was worse than last time. First shot base of the target on left edge! Just a few feet off! I fired 51 rds. I see at least 11 hits. The one that hit the jug looks like it was a keyhole or possibly a skip. Seems about 20% keyhole, consistent with last time. Some also seem like maybe they are wobbling but not tumbling. Its hard to tell cuz the paper was not tight. About halfway through the ammo the wind got the paper on the bottom right. I could have made more hits while the paper was blowing. I could see a lot of impacts in the dirt just short of the target and a few beyond the target. Need a plate that swings and someone with a spotter. Being alone too I cant drive to check the target snd leave my stuff. Last time we checked the target every 10 shots.

I had the garmin out this time. Not sure if it is just this batch or what, but it was 3065 fps instead of 3117 . SD of 12.

I put a flat bag rider on the stock since last time and I haven't checked zero. Im wondering if that is making the shots trend a little low. Last time same dope they were trending slightly high. For sure less muzzle rise and recoils more straight back.

This is actually 1770 yards + or - 4 yards. I measured it with gps tape measure app. Wanted to make sure im not cheating with 1756 yards lol
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I cropped your photo,,,,, I live in the hardwood forest of Appalachia and the scenery is totally different there than it is here, but remind us of the beauty of nature all around us and how wonderful it is to get out and enjoy it,,,, Roger
 

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I cropped your photo,,,,, I live in the hardwood forest of Appalachia and the scenery is totally different there than it is here, but remind us of the beauty of nature all around us and how wonderful it is to get out and enjoy it,,,, Roger
God certainly blessed us variety in our surroundings. There is beauty everywhere.
 
Well, several others have thrown their opinion in so I'll just add mine to the 'chatter'.

Looking at your target, it appears to me that you're right at the distance where velocity drop is just causing your bullets to destabilize. Once you get out to the 'ragged edge' every little detail starts showing up. If your bullets were 'blowing up' it would never make it that distance. I think you're just 'runnin' out of gas'.

No matter what it is, that's impressive at the distance.

My hat is off to you.
 
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