Factory Ammo - Is it time to buy?

[M-61]

It is sort of like buying into the stock market, timing is everything. Now that it is mid-winter there are not a lot of folks shooting so there may be less demand for ammo, if so avialability may be better. Prices - who knows.

You may want to read this and it may have an effect on your decision - https://www.zerohedge.com/political/what-great-ammunition-shortage-says-about-inflation

drover

Two things drive the market.
Fear and greed.

 

[drop_point]

You may have missed the article linked above. Vista corporate says they do. You also see it in other markets where production and supply are down while profits are up. This is no secret.

I read the article and that is not what Vista said. Notice, the writer, "Tyler Durden" (yes, a penname from a fictional character from "Fight Club") makes statements without quoting, and infers things are said that aren't said. I'd wager to say "Tyler Durden" didn't speak to Vista at all. When you look at first-hand interviews with Vista executives, they are saying they are running at capacity. However, they are not building new plants, which is responsible behavior. Which is mentioned, domestic ammo producers are "responsible" along with the inference there are only two major manufacturers; for some reason ignoring Hornady, BHA, and a whole host of others. But the truth is, it would be irresponsible to build new plants for a short-term supply shortage because demand will certainly decline as it has every other rush in our history.

Then there is talk of margins, specifically, a "record" margin of 27% as if they is somehow proof of "price fixing". The reality is, they are using components purchased months, if not years, ago and they are anticipating inevitable inflation. Higher prices reflective of higher current demand certainly leads to higher margins. However, when demand levels off, inflation eases, they will have record low margins, just as they did leading into the "Trump Slump". Companies ultimately don't seek "higher margins" because that is not necessarily the way to maximize profit. Margins are simply a tool to help one understand and diagnose processes. Higher margins would assume a specific selling price, which may demonstrate more units of product can be sold at a lower selling price, thus lowering profit. If margins alone were the goal, companies could price product to any price they wanted to get the desired margin. But they don't. Why? Companies want profit, period.

So inference of price fixing by the writer is at best pure speculation. The writer's "proof" is nothing other than a stretch with creative interpretation of an out-of-context quote.

 

[jelenko]

Buying at the current rates ensures prices will remain artificially elevated. I'm not buying any Vista products. I'll pay the same price or more from companies not blatantly telling us it's rain.

Why are prices higher? Why are there shortages? If you supply a free market, you have to make enough to supply all your customers and at a price cheaper than your competition. You have to do all the work available to you and accept a lower price at what the customer is willing to pay when they have alternatives. There is a limit on profit and the limit is lower than what is available.

If however you can reduce or collude with competition to limit availability to less than demand, you can charge a higher price. You can get all the money available for your product within the market rather than just what the market is willing to give. And you get it all for less work.

That's the basis for why corporations are participating in the fear scam. Their profits are up. It's not just corporations doing this. It's bigger than just how much you pay for primers.

It is HIGHLY unlikely that Vista or any other company would make public statements that could be interpreted as meaning there is price collusion. Here's is a write up on the criminal penalties.

I have no idea whether they are or aren't - but it's certain that if they were colluding on prices, they would not be make public statements about it.

 

[ebb]

And who is going to prosecute the ammo companies for collusion? the current administration wants nothing more than a complete ban, they are welcoming it with open arms. The fact is nobody knows if prices will go down , up or stay the same. Who predicted that when Trump got elected ARs would get as low as $400. If people continue to pay $100 for one thousand primers you can bet that prices will stay up. And i am going to remember who was selling them for $100 and more.

 

[ebb]

I see a lot of things on the news about voter fraud in the last election, and news people screaming it is all baseless. I think that the news people don't know any more about it than I do, yet they are screaming at the top of their lungs it is baseless. I get the same feeling when i watch that ATK guy Van Derbrink or what ever his name is make a video about how hard he is working to supply us with ammo.

 

[jmkasza]

Then there is talk of margins, specifically, a "record" margin of 27% as if they is somehow proof of "price fixing". The reality is, they are using components purchased months, if not years, ago and they are anticipating inevitable inflation. Higher prices reflective of higher current demand certainly leads to higher margins.

I believe you are spot on with this. Large manufacturers use procurement as a resource, buying deep when they can forecast increased demand or supply shortages. Sell price follows the market conditions, but their cost hasn't increased as steeply over that same time period. Or, like you said, they very well could have a huge stockpile of materials that were purchased long ago at lower prices.

 

[howl]

I sold an old worn out ex-forest service truck once. It was so worn out, new gaskets wouldn't keep the oil in. So, I used a certain permanent adhesive, termed colloquially as gorilla snot, to put in new gaskets one last time. An engine sealed so will not leak, but you'll never use the oil pan nor valve cover again. Instead of engine oil I filled it with gear oil. Then I pressure washed the engine until sparkling.

I told the buyer what I had done. He convinced himself I had rebuilt the engine but did not want to say. So he bought at asking price, self convinced and deluded as he drove away. It's an old horse trader's scam that works time and again. Vista tells you, but you convinced yourself otherwise to do what you would otherwise not.

 

[drop_point]

I suppose the data that supports ground-breaking sales is just a conspiracy, too! That isn't actually happening. Its just NSSF, Vista, Olin, BHA, Hornady, etc. all colluding in a big conspiracy! I suppose you can tell us about the world being flat, the faked moon landing, and so on.

 

[Terrible]

There are some cartridges I have neither the time nor the inclination to load my own so I've always used factory ammo. For 9MM handguns and AR-15 style rifles it seemed to be easier and not very expensive to buy good quality, factory made stuff by the case. Accuracy wasn't a real big deal as I'm not all that good with a handgun and as long as the 5.56X45 would do Minute of Pie Plate I was happy. Back in the day (2017) I paid $11/50 for 9MM and 5.56X45 was three for a dollar from SGAmmo.

Then all this crap happened and prices skyrocketed. They've very gradually come down but in early December they started creeping back up a little. Right now I can buy 9MM 124grain FMJ brass cased ammo in case lots from a major manufacturer for $15/50 and 62 grain 5.56 brass case FMJ, same NATO SS109 I've always used, same company for 47 cents a round. The price increase vs 2017 is about 25-35 percent. Over the same period the price of copper is up 60 percent and zinc is up 15. Hard to tell how much powder and primers really cost anymore but my guess is the day of Federal 205M's for $33/brick are gone and I'll never live long enough to see it again if it does happen.

I have enough of both to meet my needs for a couple years but I'm seriously considering ordering a few more cases. Some will call it hoarding but I don't feel that way for a couple reasons. First, thanks to the guy in the oval office there is now a ban on importing Russian ammunition. Sam Gabbert, owner of SGAmmo, estimates 30-40 percent of the 9MM and 5.56 ammo we Americans buy and shoot is imported from Russia. Yes it's that cheap steel case crap that I don't want but apparently some guys only look at the price. When that pipeline dries up, the price for what you can get will most certainly go up.

Second, the far left has so far been so busy trying to unscrew the messes they've made they haven't had time to get serious about disarming those of us who are pro-gun. I think the day will come when they'll get back to their original agenda and try to take, ban and outlaw anything they don't like and they'll probably start with anything that fires 9MM or 5.56 ammo.

So I'm gonna' invest some of my kids inheiritance in ammo even if it is pricier than it once was. I don't think it will get much cheaper and if I live long enough I will probably have shot it all anyway. I'll put the once fired brass in their trust fund.....

So I think prices will only continue to increase just based on the facts, steady decrease of value of USD that has been consistent for almost a 100 yrs now added to even more sharp increase in inflation, you can’t print 30 trillion dollars and not expect inflation. Just these two factors alone should tell you, anything you can but today that will be here tomorrow, should be purchased today if possible. As an added bonus by having in stock, you will not be subject to panic buying price increases or market monopoly by main players control g prices and production, which will only continue as the 2A gets picked apart one small pieces at time. so small that you say well that’s not so bad till you notice that if you add up every little piece of infringement adds up to a whole lot of 2A restrictions. In closing my point you are not hoarding. If you know there will come a day not too long in the future where you have ammo and gear that can no longer be purchased think, Clinton’s assault weapons ban or Californias current bans then anyone grandfathered in will never regret it, and if that never happens well you still have gear and ammo to feed your gear purchased for much less then can be purchased at that time in the future. Win, win. I think we all need to realized that every little chip at 2A restrictions is a means to end don’t take my word for it, the authors of this legislation say so themselves, they brag about. If it wasn’t for fire arms, the queen would still be on our money and we may still be asking for representation in parliament. We the people, it’s our job and duty, to protect our rights.

 

[Carl S]

Reloading components are horrendous here in England.i recently purchased 1000 federal 205 gold medal primers.£11.75 PER 100.Berger 52grn bullet heads,match..£36 per box.the last ones were £17.55.named but a few.

 

[JEFFPPC]

I just left a Sportsmens Warehouse. The shelves are packed with ammo. 2 clerks had 2 large carts packed with ammo and no shelf space to display it. Prices are about 25 percent or more high. Now if it sits there for the next 90 days and we all can refrain from paying the inflated price....the price will come down. You can have all the bull malarkey theroys you want to belive.....but supply and demand rule, aided by consumer lack of self control. Yep, there is corporate greed but that only rules if we allow it.

 

[rebel]

I hope all non competition shooters will go back to otc ammo.

Hate to tell you this, there are a lot of hunters like myself that don't ever shoot a factory rifle round. They out number competition shooters by quite a bit, though they don't use near the components. It's not just your lawn. I am not moving a reloader to the side for a comp shooter at my shop. If I get primers, powder or bullets I make my folks happy.

 

[ckaberna]

“Dollar cost averaging”

Takes some of the sting out

 

[Gary in MD]

Well this thread got me to thinking about ammo for a couple of pistolas. With the current state of affairs in this once great country, you just don’t know what’s going to happen.
….. anyway I hope the wife doesn’t see how much I spent on ammo this morning. LOL

 

[DogBuster]

I'm strictly a hand loader....but always watch for a deal

Just bought 200 rounds of 45 ACP 230 JHP at $.72 cents each shipped (PSA)

Was needing brass....which can be $ .38-$ .050 cents each new

Good 230 gr JHP bullets aren't cheap...having LP primers or powder was not an issue

Ammo has good reviews & mfg'd in Arizona.....I'll put 100 rds in Food Saver bags...just in case

Practice with the rest.....ammo will never be inexpensive again

Ammunition Archives

Premium quality and reliable ammunition manufactured with precision by Ammo, Inc.

ammoinc.com

 

[Terrible]

I just left a Sportsmens Warehouse. The shelves are packed with ammo. 2 clerks had 2 large carts packed with ammo and no shelf space to display it. Prices are about 25 percent or more high. Now if it sits there for the next 90 days and we all can refrain from paying the inflated price....the price will come down. You can have all the bull malarkey theroys you want to belive.....but supply and demand rule, aided by consumer lack of self control. Yep, there is corporate greed but that only rules if we allow it.

I hope your right but supply and demand works best when they’re is competition, here and now we’re in situation where they’re 2 main players that control the market and know that if they can control supply side they can keep prices elevated. We have had demand outpace supply for a very long time which has equaled crazy profit margins for our friends in the supply side, so with this in mind if it was a question of market self regulation it would have corrected it self already. As you said the shelves are no longer bare but the price is still high that’s a conflict, now you said if we all stoped buying prices would drop, well I got to think that folks that want to control gun rights would love that, for that reason alone I don’t think that’s a way to go, guys I wish it was, I don’t have a solution. But we’re not in a normal economy for the regular solution to work.

 

[Ray123]

22 LR is the only ammo I buy....my guns have thousands of rounds through them and only one fired one shot of factory ammo, I still have 19 rds 300 RUM left in the box after 20 yrs...my hand loads are more accurate and more powerful, 4" long 250 gr bullets 2985 fps, machined the action bolt stop and custom mag box ...factory ammo nowhere close in performance...if that's what I want.
I owned my first 380 ACP and in 2 months put 2000 rds of various handloads through it 50 grs, 1450 fps to 115 gr 942 fps and everything in-between. Hand load all the 9mm ammo too...1 box of factory centerfire ammo in 50 years inorder to measure case head expansion on the brand new 300 RUM as there was no loading data early on.
And I don't send guns back to factory for repair...I do all repair myself. ..plus the factory warranty would be no good because most are altered and have only shot the non "conforming handload". Even the new 380 ACP has head space shortened and plastic striker spring retainer is now a split & grooved titanium retainer. Factory ammo is OK and much improved...but I'll never buy it. All ya gotta do is chronograph it, for precision it ain't there, it doesn't fit your individual needs or your barrel for the most of the time. Example : Where is a factory load for the 308 that's rated 2620 fps for a 230 Atip, or 200 at 2856 fps .715 BC MK with a 8 twist or 9 twist barrel...Or cheap 50BMG plinking ammo less than a dollar a shot, if ya bought quantities of components before the pandemic...or 185 gr bullets out of your 9mm pistol, or 50 gr & 2500 fps out of your AR 9mm rifle. Handloading... much more to it... compared to just buying the factory ammo.