• This Forum is for adults 18 years of age or over. By continuing to use this Forum you are confirming that you are 18 or older. No content shall be viewed by any person under 18 in California.

Factory Ammo - Is it time to buy?

Dave Berg

What doesn't kill us makes us bitter.
Gold $$ Contributor
There are some cartridges I have neither the time nor the inclination to load my own so I've always used factory ammo. For 9MM handguns and AR-15 style rifles it seemed to be easier and not very expensive to buy good quality, factory made stuff by the case. Accuracy wasn't a real big deal as I'm not all that good with a handgun and as long as the 5.56X45 would do Minute of Pie Plate I was happy. Back in the day (2017) I paid $11/50 for 9MM and 5.56X45 was three for a dollar from SGAmmo.

Then all this crap happened and prices skyrocketed. They've very gradually come down but in early December they started creeping back up a little. Right now I can buy 9MM 124grain FMJ brass cased ammo in case lots from a major manufacturer for $15/50 and 62 grain 5.56 brass case FMJ, same NATO SS109 I've always used, same company for 47 cents a round. The price increase vs 2017 is about 25-35 percent. Over the same period the price of copper is up 60 percent and zinc is up 15. Hard to tell how much powder and primers really cost anymore but my guess is the day of Federal 205M's for $33/brick are gone and I'll never live long enough to see it again if it does happen.

I have enough of both to meet my needs for a couple years but I'm seriously considering ordering a few more cases. Some will call it hoarding but I don't feel that way for a couple reasons. First, thanks to the guy in the oval office there is now a ban on importing Russian ammunition. Sam Gabbert, owner of SGAmmo, estimates 30-40 percent of the 9MM and 5.56 ammo we Americans buy and shoot is imported from Russia. Yes it's that cheap steel case crap that I don't want but apparently some guys only look at the price. When that pipeline dries up, the price for what you can get will most certainly go up.

Second, the far left has so far been so busy trying to unscrew the messes they've made they haven't had time to get serious about disarming those of us who are pro-gun. I think the day will come when they'll get back to their original agenda and try to take, ban and outlaw anything they don't like and they'll probably start with anything that fires 9MM or 5.56 ammo.

So I'm gonna' invest some of my kids inheiritance in ammo even if it is pricier than it once was. I don't think it will get much cheaper and if I live long enough I will probably have shot it all anyway. I'll put the once fired brass in their trust fund.....
 
First off, the factory ammo I usually buy is 22 rimfire, so I not an expert. Maybe some centerfire if it was a super great deal.
I would buy what I needed for now, as I believe prices will eventually normalize but at a much higher price point from what we were used to before Covid and riots.

Just my .02
Tim
 
I don't believe that current prices are the "new" normal. Prices are high right now because everyone in the distribution chain can get these higher prices, not because that is a "natural" price for the product based on costs and typical profit margins. I suspect that prices may never drop as low as they were before, but they still have a long way to go until they hit the old price + inflation (cost of materials and labor inflation, specific to the industry, not generic inflation).

Because the production of ammo requires certain scarce components (energetics) and significant capital investment to make a factory, supply can be pretty sticky, but if prices remain elevated for a period of many years, people will be more willing to take the significant risk of capital investment.

Think of the past ammo shortages, if you had decided to dump a few cool billion on a giant, state-of-the-art ammo plant right at the height of the ~2012 shortages, by the time you got your factory on line, prices would have been in the crapper and you'd have lost everything. Everyone with the big $$ in the gun industry knows this, and it makes them wary of making investment decisions based on fluctuating prices.
 
But, to be able to produce the products, you need the licenses and the building approvals and so on and so on. You must find a “friendly” locale and you still have to get Uncle Sam’s approval. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for it. It’s a hard climb and not guaranteed……….
 
Prices aren’t gonna get back to pre COVID prices anytime soon if ever and time will tell. I’ve been watching 9mm and it’s been dropping more and more over the last few weeks. There has to be a saturation point somewhere along the line,
people aren’t gonna keep buying and buying when they have a pile of it already. I do believe this shortage is a bit different than shortages in the past, the politics are different and more aggressive. I bet prices keeping getting lower though, slowly but surely. How low? Who can say for sure?
 
The time to buy is whenever you have the spare cash. No ammo you buy today even at high prices is going to drop in value 10 years from now. Every national tragedy involving firearms sparks a rush. Every election cycle sparks a rush. Riots, pandemics, supply chain issues, transportation cost, inflation, etc. None of that is going to be resolved any time soon. I'm not saying to run out and buy in bulk but picking up a box or two every pay day of something you shoot a lot of is probably worth it right now. People told me 6-7 years ago not to get into reloading because it was high, not to buy rimfire because it was high. I did anyway and have tens of thousands of primers at the then high price of $45/1000k. Wouldnt we all like to pay that now? I paid $15/325rd boxes of federal automatch and was told that was too much wait for it to go down again. I wouldn't be shooting 22lr right now if I didn't invest into thousands of rounds of 22lr when it was "too high to buy right now." The political climate is too unstable to wait for better prices in my opinion. I don't like it either but I'm still buying a couple pounds of powder here and there, the occasional box of projectiles or even just a sleeve of 100 primers when I see them. I can bet in 5 years I will wish I had if I hadn't.
 
I don't think these prices will stay forever but they will be high for awhile.... It all depends on what happens in 2022-2024.... Once people stop buying everything in sight which the price has slowed down because people can't scalp it anymore....I actually bought a brick of loose .22lr yesterday that came out to $3.49 a box.... 9 mm is $19.99 a box and .223 is $12-13 a box at my local academy but they always seem to have it... Now for some reason shotgun shells and the components have skyrocketed.... So now I slow down on skeet and start practicing my pistol in .22 for awhile , I need it haven't been shooting pistol since COVID only skeet because it was the other way around in prices... Plus I have plenty of .22 rifles...

I do honestly believe prices will drop.... Especially when people stop buying it at these high prices.... Online prices are just stupid and if I had to pay that I would stop shooting till they went down , I promise you if everybody did prices would drop overnight.... Simply change to what you can get and enjoy shooting it till these days are over.... Happens about every ten years anyway anymore.... Happened after sandy hook , happened when Obama get elected happened now that Biden is forgetting he's in office etc....
 
I only shoot my hand loads. I may buy some high priced primers to fill all the empty cases I have in 308 and 223 for plinking ammo. Only need a few K. It is winter.
 
Buying at the current rates ensures prices will remain artificially elevated. I'm not buying any Vista products. I'll pay the same price or more from companies not blatantly telling us it's rain.

Why are prices higher? Why are there shortages? If you supply a free market, you have to make enough to supply all your customers and at a price cheaper than your competition. You have to do all the work available to you and accept a lower price at what the customer is willing to pay when they have alternatives. There is a limit on profit and the limit is lower than what is available.

If however you can reduce or collude with competition to limit availability to less than demand, you can charge a higher price. You can get all the money available for your product within the market rather than just what the market is willing to give. And you get it all for less work.

That's the basis for why corporations are participating in the fear scam. Their profits are up. It's not just corporations doing this. It's bigger than just how much you pay for primers.
 
howl said:
Buying at the current rates ensures prices will remain artificially elevated. I'm not buying any Vista products. I'll pay the same price or more from companies not blatantly telling us it's rain.

Why are prices higher? Why are there shortages? If you supply a free market, you have to make enough to supply all your customers and at a price cheaper than your competition. You have to do all the work available to you and accept a lower price at what the customer is willing to pay when they have alternatives. There is a limit on profit and the limit is lower than what is available.

If however you can reduce or collude with competition to limit availability to less than demand, you can charge a higher price. You can get all the money available for your product within the market rather than just what the market is willing to give. And you get it all for less work.

That's the basis for why corporations are participating in the fear scam. Their profits are up. It's not just corporations doing this. It's bigger than just how much you pay for primers.
Click to expand...
The allegations of companies colluding on price and production, if true, is really concerning. Competition is one thing but colluding is another. It's downright dishonest and against the law.

We need another Teddy Roosevelt in the Oval Office and soon.
 
GPalman said:
The allegations of companies colluding on price and production, if true, is really concerning. Competition is one thing but colluding is another. It's downright dishonest and against the law.

We need another Teddy Roosevelt in the Oval Office and soon.
Click to expand...
There is zero evidence of companies limiting supply. Outside of building new plants, which will net in a loss to the company because it won't sustain them when demand decreases, there is little they can do to increase production.
 
Last edited:
tylerw02 said:
There is zero evidence of companies limiting supply. Outside of building new plants, which will net in a loss to the company because it won't sustain them when demand decreases, there is little they can do to increase production.
Click to expand...
You may have missed the article linked above. Vista corporate says they do. You also see it in other markets where production and supply are down while profits are up. This is no secret.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Upgrades & Donations

This Forum's expenses are primarily paid by member contributions. You can upgrade your Forum membership in seconds. Gold and Silver members get unlimited FREE classifieds for one year. Gold members can upload custom avatars.


Click Upgrade Membership Button ABOVE to get Gold or Silver Status.

You can also donate any amount, large or small, with the button below. Include your Forum Name in the PayPal Notes field.


To DONATE by CHECK, or make a recurring donation, CLICK HERE to learn how.

Classified Ads

Forum statistics

Threads
165,781
Messages
2,202,793
Members
79,108
Latest member
Nitrogrrl

Share This Page

Back
Top