This time seems different to me. We've got the president of Federal, CCI & etc. releasing videos here
Federal 1 and here
Federal 2 with the second much less informative than the first. Jason Hornady here
Hornady assuring us that everything is going to be okay and yet I have seen no primers at any local stores in Atlanta or on-line at what I think are large volume dealers like Brownells, Grafs, Powder Valley and the like. Not only are primers unavailable but within a few months of primer disappearance, it became just as difficult to find powder, brass and now projectiles. Maybe I am misremembering the past but it seems like you could always get your hands on alternative powders and projectiles but, not now.
Possible hearsay - I have heard from industry sources (I know a guy who knows a guy kind of source) that the supply chain is broken. Difficult to get necessary components out of China like lead for bullets and chemicals required to make primers due to Covid and overwhelming demand. Note that this is a different story than that coming out of Federal and Hornady.
One of the Jasons claims that we have many more hunters this year (2020) than ever before. It was easy to look at an aggregated state-by-state hunting license issuance for the past two years, 2019 and 2020, and there was no detectable uptick in hunting licenses.
I don't necessarily think there is some conspiracy to keep hand loaders from loading but, as far as I am aware there were no GIANT purchases of ammo by government entities like last time.
I am surprised that gun sales continue to be so strong but, I know that they are being sold the moment they hit a store. I have witnessed that with my own eyes. If you knew there was no new ammo coming, owning a gun wouldn't do you much good.
This long read does not end with a conclusion other than this time seems different to me.
Hopefully, one of you will say that they have seen new shipments of primers in the past 4-6 weeks and I'll be wrong.
Henryrifle