Thanks for all the input. Here is what I found:
1. Lubing the cases definitely improved the situation. I lightly lubed the HSM ammo (Win cases) with CLP and shot 29 rounds. Lost 5 to splitting (17%). This still sucks, but significantly better than 40% splitting without lubing the cases.
2. Pigbuttons sent me some of his fireforming ammo (Nosler cases, annealed one on the left, lightly oiled), and none of them split or showed any visual bulge above the webbing.
View attachment 1203324
3. Pigbuttons also sent me two cases fired from same rifle, one Hornady (left) and one PPU (right). The Hornady was clearly smaller diameter and shows bulge above the web, while PPU looks like the Nosler, with no sign of bulge.
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4. I checked the SAAMI drawings for standard Hornet case and chamber, and measured the loaded and fired cases for comparison. It appears that my chamber is not oversized since fired cases measure only 0.003” under the max chamber dimension.
View attachment 1203327
My conclusion is that Stacy, pigbuttons, and screaminweasle are correct. Lubing cases help the fire forming, and Win cases seem to be a bit too thin or brittle.