I did my PE in materials and machine design, so I have a familiarity with how fatigue mechanics works. From my experience, to estimate the fatigue life on my bolt with my loads, you'd have to know some information about both that I don't think you know.Based on experience, I lean toward @243Mendoza and his position regarding pressures. I'm not going to doubt you either but I do think you are very near where fatigue may show up as broken bolt lugs,, eventually.
I hope not but based on pressures and my experience with different Grendel versions in both bolt guns and in ar's, you are operating at fringe pressure levels for a reliable ar15 platform rifle, at your stated velocities. It might hold up for a while and it might hold up forever but I'm only stating my experience, not absolutes.
You are clearly a fan of the cartridge and I don't fault or credit that but you do take promoting it pretty serious, for whatever reason. It might be the best thing since sliced bread but is virtually a twin to both a 6ppc and a 6 Grendel, with no significant advantages over either. So, I don't see the big deal. Now, when Lapua starts making good brass for it, it might have something going for it. That being an already formed case that can emulate a ppc or 6 Grendel with less work. Until then, the only thing it has over those is factory ammo, a platform that can't stand up to its ideal pressures and very low quality brass options. Saami approval might open doors to fix both but I think makers are reluctant to publish bolt and gas gun data. I don't think anyone has said it's a bad round. He'll, it can't be. It falls right between and very close to two very good cartridges. Brass and bolts hold it back, for now, imo.
Otherwise, it's been done and has already been proven to be an excellent cartridge.
There are better bolts for ar15s that help but I've not seen one that will hold up to modest ppc br loads yet, over the long haul.
One more thing that irks me a little is how Hornady promotes speeds without clearly stating bbl lengths.
Fwiw.
What experience exactly are you basing your assessments on. Experience with 6mm ARC using similar loads or factory ammo? If so, what bolt type/material and what fatigue life did to see at what pressures? It sounds like both you and 243Mendoza are speculating, maybe based on the bad old days of 6.5 Grendel when lots of folks were shooting loads that were over the 52ksi limit, or maybe based on the various Grendel wildcats that are generally lacking in real pressure tested data.
I like the ARC, but I'm not a fan of it more than say the 6GT, 6.5 Creedbro, .30-06, or .223, for their own niches. I like cartridges that just work well for their intended purpose with minimal messing around. I do think it's about as good as you can do for long range in an AR-15, but mostly I hate to see threads like this get clogged up with bad information, speculation in place of data, and nonsense about stolen ideas.
I think your last statement about Hornady not specifying barrel length for speeds is pretty baseless. Every bit of Hornady 6mm ARC data I've seen clearly states the barrel length (see attached). Beyond that they put out a table that shows the speeds to expect for various loads across various barrel lengths.... I really don't know what else they could do to satisfy you in that regard?