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COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

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@sdk,

CDC guidelines here are a topic for another day. The crux our current disagreement began when you asked "Where's the hype?" in the breathless reporting of a dramatic uptick in deaths! over two days, which implied a significant setback in our war on the virus (and not incidentally, a repudiation of the "rosy" assessment of the President.) That was fake news in that the reports downplayed or completely ignored the technicality of the data adjustment. Certainly the headlines ignored it.

Incidentally, will the +3800 be a "rounding error" in NY City, NY State, the USA, or the world?
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Dunno. Maybe a couple of weeks. Certainly not long enough for my liking. How about you?

I do believe that a lot more people will die and that it's very unfortunate. And for a very great proportion of the population life is not going to resemble 'normal' for many months and quite likely at least a year or more.



As an addendum to the post above. Always good to read the footnotes.

NOTE: Changes in New York State Data following the new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition

Note on Michigan death data: MDHHS staff has put in place, a weekly review death certificate data maintained in Vital Records reporting systems. As a part of this process, records that identify COVID-19 infection as a contributing factor to death are compared against all laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). If a death certificate is matched to a confirmed COVID-19 case and that record in the MDSS does not indicate a death, the MDSS record is updated to indicate the death and the appropriate local health department is notified. These matched deaths are then included with mortality information posted to the Michigan Coronavirus website. As a result of this week’s assessment, today’s data includes 65 additional deaths that have been identified through this methodology. [source]

New York City retracted 145 deaths previously reported, on April 15, to have taken place in Brooklyn and Manhattann [source] [source]

Maybe I'm reaching here but reading what you write is like listening to Nancy Pelosi or Rachael Madow. Where are you coming from? You seem like one of those I see in the MSM who wants the economy shutdown until we are in a depression. Do you actually own a firearm? Live in an area where personal responsibility and initiative are valued? Do you value the Constitution or view it as an irrelevant document from antiquity? Is that you Nancy?

Fear is the mind killer. Just say no to fear.
 
@JimT That's indeed good news. And it's nice to see stocks rally on the back of it. Here's hoping scientists continue to make advancements in both treatment options and a vaccine. Love it when smart scientists do their work.

The last post isn't worthy of a response.
 
Incidentally, will the +3800 be a "rounding error" in NY City, NY State, the USA, or the world?
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I'd expect 3800 to be within the margin of error for reporting deaths due to COVID in the USA. My personal opinion/expectation.(Although NY state just demonstrated it could well be in the margin of error for a single state.)
 
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@JimT That's indeed good news. And it's nice to see stocks rally on the back of it. Here's hoping scientists continue to make advancements in both treatment options and a vaccine. Love it when smart scientists do their work.

The last post isn't worthy of a response.
Not sure what you mean by the last post is not worthy of a response, but my final link in my post clearly illustrates that there will be costs involved in how we have approached this crisis.
 
Not sure what you mean by the last post is not worthy of a response, but my final link in my post clearly illustrates that there will be costs involved in how we have approached this crisis.

Wasn't referring to yours but rather post 462.
 
@JimT That's indeed good news. And it's nice to see stocks rally on the back of it. Here's hoping scientists continue to make advancements in both treatment options and a vaccine. Love it when smart scientists do their work.

The last post isn't worthy of a response.

it is you, isn't it Nancy. Well, the small business bailout funds are gone and you are back home in Napa Valley drinking $100 bottles of wine. What next?
 
Study published in peer-reviewed Virology Journal (2005, Martin J Vincent, Eric Bergeron, [...], and Stuart T Nichol):

"... chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic advantage. ... Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine prior to or after SARS CoV infection. In addition, the indirect immunofluorescence assay described herein represents a simple and rapid method for screening SARS-CoV antiviral compounds."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/
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That is not a randomized clinical study, that is simply a cell culture experiment. Far from the bar of proof required. Really only a tease. I see cancer cured in mice every day yet the same treatments disappoint in humans.

Just my humble opinion as someone who develops drugs for a living...
 
So you're comparing annual mortality from other causes to a pandemic that is 2-3 months old in most of the world, and still growing exponentially?

You'll have to explain why we shouldn't ignore your "analysis".

My "analysis" on April 5 was noting facts... but now on April 16, we know that WA state hit peak deaths on April 6.

It seems we stopped doubling and doubling.
 
That is not a randomized clinical study, that is simply a cell culture experiment. Far from the bar of proof required.
It was not a randomized clinical trial, but it's also not "no evidence".

"Proof" is not always required. The Salk polio vaccine was controversially rushed to market, after what were largely non-randomized field trials. What they did in 1954 is still being debated today. They took a calculated risk due to the terror of polio's devastation on mostly children. Harry Weaver (Director Of Research, National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis) wrote at the time:

The practice of medicine is based on calculated risk .... If [we wait until more] research is carried out, large numbers of human beings will develop poliomyelitis who might have been prevented from doing so."
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Maybe I'm reaching here but reading what you write is like listening to Nancy Pelosi or Rachael Madow. Where are you coming from? You seem like one of those I see in the MSM who wants the economy shutdown until we are in a depression. Do you actually own a firearm? Live in an area where personal responsibility and initiative are valued? Do you value the Constitution or view it as an irrelevant document from antiquity? Is that you Nancy?

Fear is the mind killer. Just say no to fear.

I don't know if it's Nancy but he or she is doing their best to politicize this.
 
The challenging thing about treatments - assuming people can afford them - in a viral situation is that they are only (relatively speaking) marginally helpful in getting the economy going again. Countries around the world could have just tossed a lot of over 60 year-olds under the bus. After all, retirees and particularly poor retirees don't contribute much to the economy. Quite the contrary - as a group they're a huge burden on the economy. Economically speaking, a sizable, swift cull of the old is good for the young. A big pit is relatively cheap to dig and you eliminate a massive amount of unfunded pension and healthcare costs, as well as free up a lot of capital for more productive use.

The challenge with a virus that preys on the old is, therefore, largely a moral one. And countries around the world have largely chosen to endeavor to mitigate the impact on society (at a cost to the economy) of a very large number of deaths weighted heavily (but not entirely) on those over 60. Personally I'm in favor of such moves and while the globe will experience a sharp and deep recession like none we've experienced in modern history, I don't believe we are headed for a depression. (We've learnt a lot since the mistakes of the late 1920s.). The policy response has been good thus far.

A treatment can help save a lot of lives and, by moving people more quickly through intensive care, help alleviate the burden on healthcare infrastructure. But without a vaccine you still have the issue of getting people back to work many of whom are required to work in close quarters with their colleagues, wanting to go to packed restaurants, bars, clubs and movie theaters or sit on planes with 400+ other people they don't know on their way to a cruise ship for a tour of the Med including such delightful places as a packed Venice or Milan, or even sit shoulder to shoulder in church without being fearful they too will need an intensive care bed a few weeks later.

A vaccine remains the primo goal. I'm optimistic that we get there although I don't believe it's going to be a swift process to find one and get the population vaccinated. And even more so, I fully expect my young children to be the last generation to suffer from seasonal (or otherwise) 'flu just as my generation should have been the last to suffer from measles, mumps and chickenpox. In the interim, I would be pleasantly surprised to not contract COVID-19. I'm not fearful of it. I look after myself, eat well and stay fit and that, coupled with only being in my mid 50s, means I'm not in a high risk category. It could very well be unpleasant but the odds of me dying from it are low. The probability of my children suffering from it is also very low. Now if I were older, unfit and had higher risk preconditions then I'd have every cause to be much more concerned. But maybe we shouldn't give a toss about those people and just dig a few big pits like they did in 1918. Or find some middle ground like only giving treatments to those under 40 or those that have saved enough to not be a burden on the economy in late age...
 
My "analysis" on April 5 was noting facts... but now on April 16, we know that WA state hit peak deaths on April 6.

It seems we stopped doubling and doubling.

Yesterday's doubling rate for U.S. COVID-19 deaths was 10.7 days. The 3-day moving average was 7.3 days. Since you seem capable of doing the math, why don't you do it?


Screen Shot 2020-04-17 at 6.17.10 AM.png
 
The challenging thing about treatments - assuming people can afford them - in a viral situation is that they are only (relatively speaking) marginally helpful in getting the economy going again. Countries around the world could have just tossed a lot of over 60 year-olds under the bus. After all, retirees and particularly poor retirees don't contribute much to the economy. Quite the contrary - as a group they're a huge burden on the economy. Economically speaking, a sizable, swift cull of the old is good for the young. A big pit is relatively cheap to dig and you eliminate a massive amount of unfunded pension and healthcare costs, as well as free up a lot of capital for more productive use.

The challenge with a virus that preys on the old is, therefore, largely a moral one. And countries around the world have largely chosen to endeavor to mitigate the impact on society (at a cost to the economy) of a very large number of deaths weighted heavily (but not entirely) on those over 60. Personally I'm in favor of such moves and while the globe will experience a sharp and deep recession like none we've experienced in modern history, I don't believe we are headed for a depression. (We've learnt a lot since the mistakes of the late 1920s.). The policy response has been good thus far.

A treatment can help save a lot of lives and, by moving people more quickly through intensive care, help alleviate the burden on healthcare infrastructure. But without a vaccine you still have the issue of getting people back to work many of whom are required to work in close quarters with their colleagues, wanting to go to packed restaurants, bars, clubs and movie theaters or sit on planes with 400+ other people they don't know on their way to a cruise ship for a tour of the Med including such delightful places as a packed Venice or Milan, or even sit shoulder to shoulder in church without being fearful they too will need an intensive care bed a few weeks later.

A vaccine remains the primo goal. I'm optimistic that we get there although I don't believe it's going to be a swift process to find one and get the population vaccinated. And even more so, I fully expect my young children to be the last generation to suffer from seasonal (or otherwise) 'flu just as my generation should have been the last to suffer from measles, mumps and chickenpox. In the interim, I would be pleasantly surprised to not contract COVID-19. I'm not fearful of it. I look after myself, eat well and stay fit and that, coupled with only being in my mid 50s, means I'm not in a high risk category. It could very well be unpleasant but the odds of me dying from it are low. The probability of my children suffering from it is also very low. Now if I were older, unfit and had higher risk preconditions then I'd have every cause to be much more concerned. But maybe we shouldn't give a toss about those people and just dig a few big pits like they did in 1918. Or find some middle ground like only giving treatments to those under 40 or those that have saved enough to not be a burden on the economy in late age...
Who needs to see a shrink?
Did you actually say your personally for culling the older population due to financial burdens.
We learned alot since the depression. Really?
Didn't we just go through a major market crash in 2008?
And now were printing money to hand out.
What's supporting it?
You safest and cheapest insurance through this is God, but your a non believer.
Agian I'll pray for you.
 
Yesterday's doubling rate for U.S. COVID-19 deaths was 10.7 days. The 3-day moving average was 7.3 days. Since you seem capable of doing the math, why don't you do it?
That chart is for the entire US. I see a dramatic spike several days ago which, as we know, reflects a cause-of-death classification adjustment to data from NYC. What's going on in WA state? Exponential growth?
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Who needs to see a shrink?
Did you actually say your personally for culling the older population due to financial burdens.
We learned alot since the depression. Really?
Didn't we just go through a major market crash in 2008?
And now were printing money to hand out.
What's supporting it?
You safest and cheapest insurance through this is God, but your a non believer.
Agian I'll pray for you.
You might want to S-L-O-W-L-Y reread his post and revise your conclusion.
 
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