Coronavirus podcast a must see.

[wbm]

Nah I figure you guys are gonna need the cash for T paper. So far it appears you need it way more than I do.

 

[Cochran]

I figured that you were just blowing smoke. If you really thought that the last round of H1N1 influenza was worse than SARS-CoV-2, and that COVID-19 responses have been an overreaction ["No nation wide shutdowns, national emergencies, or economic collapse. How very odd!"], you'd be happy to take my $100. After all, there are fewer than 10,000 deaths from COVID-19 across the entire globe right now, and only 205 deaths in the U.S.

I’d take you up on that if I had any faith in the agencies that make up these stats.
50k by Christmas is excessive.
The problem is most every death between now and then will in some way be tied to covid.

 

[wbm]

The problem is most every death between now and then will in some way be tied to covid.

Could be. It is panic mode for sure....two days ago on Fox Business "Claman" report large block letters. "SECOND WAVE OF CORONA VIRUS HITS HONG KONG...24 NEW CASES"...So out of a city of over 7 Million people 24 new cases is a "second wave"? When did the "first wave" end?

From what I hear and read from CDC and others I think that Covid-19 response may be over-reaction in some places but it is probably better to over-react. Any other choice would be political suicide for anyone foolish enough to do otherwise. Watched one research guy from CDC on CSPAN and he thinks when it all "washes out" on a world wide scale Covid-19 deaths will be 1% or less. Hope he is correct.

 

[Nick Caprinolo]

Take all the precautions you want, but if you go about your normal business of going outside your home and intermingling with others you run the risk of becoming infected and then passing it along to others. I went to BJ's yesterday and wiped down the cart handle with an alcohol wipe. I did my best not to come into close contact with others. did my preventative measures help? who knows. I watched others pick up products and then put them back on the shelf. Someone is going to pick it up again.

How many folks already have the virus and don't know it yet. Not everyone will heed the order to stay home even if they know they already have it. Some will really need something they can't do without and go out anyway.

Truth is we don't fully understand this virus. this virus carries a 3.5% death rate. That is ten times the regular flu rate. Will it kill off mankind. I don't think so but it will kill 3.5 victims out of every 100 contractions.

And yet, that is not what concerns me as much as the economy being driven driven into a depression. In the US, we have already decided to allocate one trillion dollars and that number will probably double in short order. That does not take into account the money lost by business. If the government tries to bail out all these companies inflation will run amok. We have no surplus money in this country. All we can do is print paper and watch our savings and pensions become useless promises of a meaningful existence.

I remember back in 1945, when they still showed newsreels in theaters across the country, watching people in Japan taking wheelbarrows full of Yen to the store for groceries. Not too long ago in South America the same thing was happening.

Will this happen in the future? I hope not. Remember this is world wide. All it would take is for one or two countries to crash and the world market will crash with it. On Tuesday, the malls were full of shoppers. The stores were all open. Yesterday the malls were closed. All this folks are not out of a job. these are people in the lower economic pay scale. They live from paycheck to paycheck.

Before you read this and think I am a gloom and doom nut, remember big business is starting to shut down. GM and Ford have stated they are closing all production lines. The Airlines have begged for a bailout. All transportation is slowing down. What do you think the unemployment rate will be next month?

This is not so much a pandemic disaster as it is economic hell.

Give this some thought before you start yelling that I am a crazy old coot.

Footnote added

How many people work in the retail industry?
Today, nearly 16 million people work in retail, accounting for more than one in ten workers. The industry includes companies like Walmart, the nation's largest private sector employer (and the employer of 10% of retail workers), but also thousands of small businesses from restaurants to bowling alleys to gas stations.Nov 27, 2017

 

[wbm]

This is not so much a pandemic disaster as it is economic hell.

It is that. At least some of the market "meltdown" however is not related to Covid-19.
Oil prices are at an 18 year low and one of biggest losers day before yesterday was in energy.
All the losses were reported on Fox Business as "Market Selloff Due To Corona Virus Concerns"...when in reality on that day energy and Boeing were the big losers. They took the big hit. Stuart Varney is one of the very few these days who says these factors are under-reported.

 

[JimT]

Take all the precautions you want, but if you go about your normal business of going outside your home and intermingling with others you run the risk of becoming infected and then passing it along to others. I went to BJ's yesterday and wiped down the cart handle with an alcohol wipe. I did my best not to come into close contact with others. did my preventative measures help? who knows. I watched others pick up products and then put them back on the shelf. Someone is going to pick it up again.

How many folks already have the virus and don't know it yet. Not everyone will heed the order to stay home even if they know they already have it. Some will really need something they can't do without and go out anyway.

Truth is we don't fully understand this virus. this virus carries a 3.5% death rate. That is ten times the regular flu rate. Will it kill off mankind. I don't think so but it will kill 3.5 victims out of every 100 contractions.

And yet, that is not what concerns me as much as the economy being driven driven into a depression. In the US, we have already decided to allocate one trillion dollars and that number will probably double in short order. That does not take into account the money lost by business. If the government tries to bail out all these companies inflation will run amok. We have no surplus money in this country. All we can do is print paper and watch our savings and pensions become useless promises of a meaningful existence.

I remember back in 1945, when they still showed newsreels in theaters across the country, watching people in Japan taking wheelbarrows full of Yen to the store for groceries. Not too long ago in South America the same thing was happening.

Will this happen in the future? I hope not. Remember this is world wide. All it would take is for one or two countries to crash and the world market will crash with it. On Tuesday, the malls were full of shoppers. The stores were all open. Yesterday the malls were closed. All this folks are not out of a job. these are people in the lower economic pay scale. They live from paycheck to paycheck.

Before you read this and think I am a gloom and doom nut, remember big business is starting to shut down. GM and Ford have stated they are closing all production lines. The Airlines have begged for a bailout. All transportation is slowing down. What do you think the unemployment rate will be next month?

This is not so much a pandemic disaster as it is economic hell.

Give this some thought before you start yelling that I am a crazy old coot.

The long and short of it is a short term unemployment rate of 20% is preferable to a 3.5% death rate. If the steps that are being taken we’re not carried out EVERYONE would get it. You can do the math at 3.5% death rate. BTW, the death rate for members of this forum would be considerably higher.

Unfortunately, government is really the only entity equipped to deal with the economic consequences of this virus and they appear to be making headway. Unlike many here, I realize business as usual is not an option.

 

[wbm]

Give this some thought before you start yelling that I am a crazy old coot.

I did....and you're not.