COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

Discussion in 'Main Message Board' started by dibbs, Mar 13, 2020.

  1. outasite `08

    outasite `08

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2011
    Messages:
    223
    My wife and I went out today and got some beer.We delivered an AR15 to our chiropractor,so he would have it if the stuff gets worse. Most people we talked to were trying to make the most of a bad situation. I`m joining them. I`m done with the numbers, predictions, the what-ifs. I`m 68, most likely near the finish line. I want to be as happy as I can until I cross the line. Just my outlook, not pointing fingers. So stay safe,do what you can to do that and we`ll all be back here in a few weeks or more to talk about our passion for things that go BANG. God be with you all, Jeff
     
    Topstrap, J F Johannes and Dub like this.
  2. INTJ

    INTJ Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2018
    Messages:
    789
    The restrictions definitely appear to help, and Governors are where the main decisions and efforts should be in these types of events. The Federal Government should only be in a supporting role. Further, the Governors need to listen to their Mayors when determining the level of restrictions. What NYC needs is not what Springfield, OR needs. Yes, I am still irritated that they shut down the members only portion of my local gun range where most of the time I had the entire 20 bench 200 yd range to myself, and it was no issue practicing social distance from the 1 or 2 others that would occasionally show up.

    And while this Administration has done a reasonable job with this pandemic--not as good as the president thinks but nowhere nearly as badly the press is trying to spin it--I do not want the federal government in the drivers seat for future emergency preparedness. That too belongs at the state and city level with the federal government in a supporting role, not in a directing role.

    It would be a mistake to consider the effectiveness of the restrictions by comparing what is happening now with the worse case scenario. Even if nothing had been done the worse case scenario would not have happened. That said, predicting the likely outcome is very hard.

    I think the Diamond Princess is an excellent example. As of March 24th: 3711 people, 712 infections, 331 cases with no symptoms, 10 deaths. That does seem to track well with what is happening in the US. The DP so far has a 19% infection rate, 1.4% deaths of those infected, .27% deaths of the total. If the entire nation become infected that would be 900,000 deaths. Perhaps that is a more likely worse case scenario?
     
  3. SGK

    SGK Silver $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2018
    Messages:
    1,032
    It's also worth noting that Ferguson's comments which were given during the UK's parliamentary select committee on science and technology were based on keeping the country largely locked down until a vaccine arrived in 12-18 months, something he acknowledged as impractical. He also noted the benefits of increased testing (and associated isolation of confirmed cases) and the plan to massively increase this in the UK to South Korean levels with the aim of testing and tracing the general population. Apparently the original report did not include this because the testing capacity to test the general population simply wasn't available.

    So we have social distancing (including isolation of those at risk sectors of the population) coupled with aggressive testing and tracing of the general population allowing the country to not suffer anywhere as much as an unchecked virus. I put that in the "no sh$t Sherlock" bucket. They did the same in Asia only MUCH faster. Let's do the same here and achieve similar benefits.

    Note the Imperial College team revised upwards their estimate of their estimate of Ro - the number of people a carrier is expected to infect - from 2.5 to just over 3. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.
     
    Laurie and INTJ like this.
  4. INTJ

    INTJ Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2018
    Messages:
    789
    Yeah, we need more data for there to be a trend. More work should be done in this area to have better predictors for future epidemics.
     
  5. SGK

    SGK Silver $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2018
    Messages:
    1,032
    And just how did they limit the infection rate to 19%?
     
  6. INTJ

    INTJ Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2018
    Messages:
    789
    Another issue with death statistics is there is a tendency to call anyone who gets COVID-19 and dies a COVID-19 death, when in most cases the people that died had one or more underlying issues and would have died soon anyway. That is a terribly insensitive way to put it, but it is something to factor into the data analysis.
     
    TZaun, Bc'z, DirtySteve and 2 others like this.
  7. SGK

    SGK Silver $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2018
    Messages:
    1,032
    Yes. The vertical scale is logarithmic and so the line becomes very linear. The slope of the linear line (with log y scale) is demonstrative of the exponent.
     
  8. INTJ

    INTJ Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2018
    Messages:
    789
    No doubt they took precautions, but they were also in a much higher risk environment. I don't know how to account for both variables.

    That said I have never opposed targeted quarantines and restrictions. I opposed the panic and overreactions caused by sensationalist media reporting and politicians going along to advance their agenda and CYA.

    Interestingly, the public does get "panic fatigue", especially when the disaster being pushed doesn't happen. The media and our politicians have done this so often they lack credibility, which can actually make things worse as people choose to disregard guidance on those rare times when it is reasonable.
     
  9. SGK

    SGK Silver $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2018
    Messages:
    1,032
    They confined everyone to their rooms for a quarantine period. Social distancing knocked the spread on its head. Imagine if they hadn't. Recalculate your figures for 60-80% infection.

    I agree with you that people will get less cooperative with restrictions. The result is a likely reburst post summer. Ferguson's report shows the rebound occurring even after 5 months of social distancing etc. A lot of people disregarded guidance at the beginning - a mere 3 weeks or so ago.
     
  10. spclark

    spclark Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2007
    Messages:
    4,131
    True enough but then so also it is that up until a very short time ago (on the scale of those hundreds of thousands of years) few, if any of 'mankind' had the means to have their body - and its infections - transported anywhere beyond the vicinity in which they spent maybe their entire lives. 20 miles once was a distance few ever traveled in their lifetime! Now one can be 10,000 miles distant in 24 hours or less.

    400 years ago it took months for an infectious agent to reach a new population having no immunity.

    Now it takes hours.

    With an agent that can't be diagnosed for a period of time after exposure, while it takes over manufacturing more of itself in an infected host, then exposes other potential hosts... before it can die off... we're living with the result.
     
    Toby Bradshaw likes this.
  11. spclark

    spclark Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2007
    Messages:
    4,131
    A friend at work related a brief description of a call he got from a cousin delivering ice cream in New Mexico. The delivery was turned back at the state line because it was't 'necessary goods.'

    After asking the transport company what they wanted him to do they allegedly informed him they wouldn't pay to return with the undelivered product.

    Friend then went on to relate how he'd heard that trucks at rest stops in Utah and Idaho are being broken into while they sit idle during this national emergency.

    I have to wonder what it takes to have the states ask for National Guard assistance to put down the looting?
     
  12. Toby Bradshaw

    Toby Bradshaw Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    1,401
    Check again. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
     
  13. INTJ

    INTJ Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2018
    Messages:
    789
    How do you know it would have been 60-80% infection rate?

    The WHO, looking at data from China, said there was a 1-5% chance of getting the virus.

    Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine said that if you had an infected person in your house it became a 10% chance you would be infected.

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/a-data-driven-look-at-the-wuhan-coronavirus.php

    We still aren't up to the infection rate on the Diamond Princess.

    The unknown is how much quarantine and social distance affected those numbers. However, it is incorrect to assume that without government mandated quarantine and restrictions that no one would do it.

    I personally practice social distance at all times and wash my hands anytime I am in a public place, and I am not the only one that does that. Many people who are at most risk will also change their behavior to mitigate that risk when they know the threat.
     
    spclark likes this.
  14. SGK

    SGK Silver $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2018
    Messages:
    1,032
  15. outasite `08

    outasite `08

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2011
    Messages:
    223
    Did you and INTJ consider PM`s. Think about it. Jeff
     
    J F Johannes likes this.
  16. INTJ

    INTJ Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2018
    Messages:
    789
    Are we simply discussing the topic at hand in a civil manner? Is that not appropriate on this forum?
     
    Bc'z, Mark W and Earnhardt like this.
  17. JimT

    JimT “I don’t even own a piece of camo!”-Kenny Jarrett Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2006
    Messages:
    761
    I like the exchange of facts and opinions! Did you ever consider not reading this thread?????
     
  18. ronsatspokane

    ronsatspokane Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2014
    Messages:
    399
    Yup, finally made it past. Guess we are the winners. Thank you New York. They were still encouraging people to go out to eat and go to a movie while the NBA was canceling the season. They were also told by their leaders that it was ok to ride the subway (which it sounds like is where a lot of people picked up the virus). This was as the virus was already in bloom.
     
  19. ronsatspokane

    ronsatspokane Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2014
    Messages:
    399
    Not the best presentation. Reminds me of statistics classes 40 years ago. Telling a story via numbers is an art and that chart does not obviously present the story the author is trying to tell, if the author is trying to reach a broad audience.
     
  20. Toby Bradshaw

    Toby Bradshaw Gold $$ Contributor

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    1,401
    Standard in math and science, because a linear scale is unreadable at the low end of a logarithmic curve, and it's simpler to extrapolate a straight line than a logarithmic function plotted on a linear scale.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-26 at 9.03.38 PM.png

    Screen Shot 2020-03-26 at 6.39.02 AM.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020

Share This Page