Keith Glasscock
Gold $$ Contributor
Due to unforseen events, I will not be attending SWN this year, but that gives me an opportunity to share some knowledge and theories with you.
I honestly don't know if I've got 12 individual items to share, but let's start and see how many I can get out there...
Today, I'm sharing a thought experiment I've been doing for a while. The question:
On average, is grouping ability or wind drift more important in terms of absolute scores for F-Class? Is there a point of diminishing returns?
We can pretty confidently answer the first one if we consider major differences, but what do small differences do?
In order to answer this question for myself, I created the attached spreadsheets. This has been a multi-year effort, as I'm not a programmer, and just modelling the behavior of the shooter was nearly impossible. I won't comment of the wind model except to say that it behaves a little more mildly than Rattlesnake, and compares favorably, in my opinion, to Ben Avery.
Important: I do not have the bandwidth to do tech support or additional programming on this. I offer this to you as a gift with no guarantees at all. Please feel free to add to it, make it better, and/or ignore it. I only ask that if you improve upon it, that you share that improvement freely with the public.
Instructions:
First, input your parameters in the box. You will need to have a theoretical group size (both vertical and horizontal) and the 10 mph full value wind drift for each load.
The Maximum Starting Wind is used to make average conditions more ferocious or mild. The system picks a random starting wind for each relay between zero and the input value.
The shutdown range wind is used as a cap for wind speed. For example, above 45mph at Rattlesnake, we start snapping frames off, and have to stop shooting.
With your input done, just click Run Simulation to get the program started.
NOTE: if it doesn't work, look for the amber bar above the sheet. Content must be enabled to allow it to work:
Let me be completely clear about the output:
This is a simulation that models a theoretical wind behavior, and theoretical shooter. Your scores will vary. It is also looking for an average performance level for the loads. In that, there is no way that it will accurately represent the outcome of relay 3 at SWN. If I could write programs that predicted the future, don't you think I'd have the lottery numbers by now?
Output:
The system outputs the average score and X count for 2000, 20 shot relays (the approximate equivalent of 20 years of shooting F-class) plus the maximum and minimum scores achieved during the 2000 relays. All of this is based on a few assumptions:
1) The wind changes, at least slightly, from shot to shot
2) The shooter does a reasonably good job of guessing what the change was, but has a normally distributed error in that guess (mimics my performance). The shooter also never accounts for the vertical component caused by headwind or tailwinds after the first shot.
3) Bullets fall within the group in a normally-distributed manner.
4) The shooter's wind call, in discrete mph value, is used to calculate accurately the proper wind hold for each individual load.
The output also tells you some environmental conditions during the 2000 relays:
1) Max wind gust
2) Highest average wind for one relay
3) Average wind speed for all shots/relays
I have 2 sheets, as I've found a distinct difference between mid and long range.
What does the A2A mean? It means Apples to Apples. How do you like them apples?
The forums do not support uploading macro enabled excel spreadsheets. You can get them here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/public-release-78234615
I honestly don't know if I've got 12 individual items to share, but let's start and see how many I can get out there...
Today, I'm sharing a thought experiment I've been doing for a while. The question:
On average, is grouping ability or wind drift more important in terms of absolute scores for F-Class? Is there a point of diminishing returns?
We can pretty confidently answer the first one if we consider major differences, but what do small differences do?
In order to answer this question for myself, I created the attached spreadsheets. This has been a multi-year effort, as I'm not a programmer, and just modelling the behavior of the shooter was nearly impossible. I won't comment of the wind model except to say that it behaves a little more mildly than Rattlesnake, and compares favorably, in my opinion, to Ben Avery.
Important: I do not have the bandwidth to do tech support or additional programming on this. I offer this to you as a gift with no guarantees at all. Please feel free to add to it, make it better, and/or ignore it. I only ask that if you improve upon it, that you share that improvement freely with the public.
Instructions:
First, input your parameters in the box. You will need to have a theoretical group size (both vertical and horizontal) and the 10 mph full value wind drift for each load.
The Maximum Starting Wind is used to make average conditions more ferocious or mild. The system picks a random starting wind for each relay between zero and the input value.
The shutdown range wind is used as a cap for wind speed. For example, above 45mph at Rattlesnake, we start snapping frames off, and have to stop shooting.
With your input done, just click Run Simulation to get the program started.
NOTE: if it doesn't work, look for the amber bar above the sheet. Content must be enabled to allow it to work:
Let me be completely clear about the output:
This is a simulation that models a theoretical wind behavior, and theoretical shooter. Your scores will vary. It is also looking for an average performance level for the loads. In that, there is no way that it will accurately represent the outcome of relay 3 at SWN. If I could write programs that predicted the future, don't you think I'd have the lottery numbers by now?
Output:
The system outputs the average score and X count for 2000, 20 shot relays (the approximate equivalent of 20 years of shooting F-class) plus the maximum and minimum scores achieved during the 2000 relays. All of this is based on a few assumptions:
1) The wind changes, at least slightly, from shot to shot
2) The shooter does a reasonably good job of guessing what the change was, but has a normally distributed error in that guess (mimics my performance). The shooter also never accounts for the vertical component caused by headwind or tailwinds after the first shot.
3) Bullets fall within the group in a normally-distributed manner.
4) The shooter's wind call, in discrete mph value, is used to calculate accurately the proper wind hold for each individual load.
The output also tells you some environmental conditions during the 2000 relays:
1) Max wind gust
2) Highest average wind for one relay
3) Average wind speed for all shots/relays
I have 2 sheets, as I've found a distinct difference between mid and long range.
What does the A2A mean? It means Apples to Apples. How do you like them apples?
The forums do not support uploading macro enabled excel spreadsheets. You can get them here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/public-release-78234615
