Powder being a cellulose product, it's a pretty good insulator, so doesn't take on big temps swings rapidly in a warm chamber. No, I don't cook them to find that point. Rather, I haven't changed my shooting style in regard to how long I'll let a round cook in a hot bbl. So, no..I have not noticed it but I don't think a tuner is a cure for that scenario and I still choose to avoid it...just like before.
The rest of your question is pretty much addressed in the quote you used in your post. Ultimately, the only 100% method is to learn to read group shapes. Just like we did before tuners. If you don't have or can't see sighters, then it's really about reading your last group and good notes...just like before tuners.
As for moisture in the powder...I don't know except to say that it's taking up powder space(volumetrically), so I'd assume it slows the bullet slightly, creating a later exit time. Once again though, same as before but a sine wave target test will show you which way and how far to move it when specific group shapes occur.
I'm more than happy to go over that in detail with you by phone. It's so much easier to use a tuner than lots of people make them out to be and others appear to be in search of an easy button. We've been looking for that button in tuning by powder charge for many years now.
One may exist but to date, Bryan's testing hasn't been done over much temp change, only pressure. Both are factors to tune and pressure appears to have an offsetting affect to rising temps. If they always followed the same curve, maybe guns would never go out of tune..but they don't and tune changes. His findings about pressure being without a significant temp swing surely hold value but air density(sorry, should've been using that word all along) follows temp, warm air being less dense than cold, etc, can only be counted on if you map out a ton of possible temp/density scenarios, weighting each properly...and that changes too. Extreme heat has more effect on powder than mild, same temp swing. See how an easy formula may be difficult to ever attain? The good news is that the sine test answers how to move it, when and how far.
I'd be happy to discuss it more with you this week.--Mike