The problem with canister powder for reloading is that there is an oligopoly for that market in the US.
All canister smokeless powder distribution is controlled by 3 companies:
- Hodgdon (Hodgdon/IMR/Winchester/Accurate/Ramshot/Alliant)
- Shooters World
- Nammo (Vihtavuori)
The one exception I know of is Midwest Powder sold by American Reloading, but I believe their powder is from demilling (though I could be wrong)
During the last panic buying cycle, Hodgdon figured out that our sorry behinds will buy their most popular products at pretty much any price they set. Furthermore they started selling said products direct, cutting out the retail channel and directly pocketing the inflated profits.
I have a feeling that if we were able to see the financial results from Hodgdon for the last 3 years we would be shocked.
So they are making a lot of money - good for them.
Yes, but the problem with the oligopoly in the US canister powder market is that it is extremely difficult for new players to enter the market. At this point there are very few canister powders not already controlled by one for the existing 3 distributors (perhaps Bofors and Norma would be available) and the investment / infrastructure needed for importing, storing, repackaging and distributing canister powder is significant. Not to mention the barrier of entry to become a powder manufacturer in the US...
Shooters World managed to do it by becoming the US distributor for the Lovex powders but that brought the oligopoly from 2 companies to 3. And they quickly figured out the skewed market will tolerate them selling 8 lbs of powder for $500 (checks notes - apparently now increased to $600).
If this was a level market, with reasonable barriers of entry, there would already be new players entering at these profit margins. But it is not a level market with reasonable barriers of entry, so the oligopoly has undue power in artificially controlling pricing.
We sing the praises of Vihtavuori in that Nammo has so far not implemented the same greedflation increases as the 2 other companies, but there is really nothing preventing them from doing so. They could raise the price of their powder to $60/lb and there would be no recourse. No new players entering the market trying to undercut the competition, because there are no other sources of canister powder that is not already controlled by the existing oligopoly (again, perhaps with the exception of Norma and Bofors).
Compare this to the primer situation. The same greedflation increases initially took place for primers (especially by CCI and Federal) but the primer distribution market has a significantly lower barrier of entry. There is a big difference in getting permits, storage and infrastructure for distributing 20 pallets of primers, compared to what is needed for distribution, storage and repackaging of canister powder.
A cottage industry has come into existence where industrious parties have become non-exclusive distributors of primers from other countries (brands such as Ginex, Magtech, RUAG, EXAKT, Fiocchi, Murom etc.). There is a large supply of such primers which has driven down their prices, which in turn is forcing CCI and Federal to lower their prices.
Remember the nonsense of $120 per brick of CCI 400 small rifle primers, plus shipping and hazmat - limit 1?
That silliness is now gone. Sure, CCI primers are still ridiculously overpriced but the prices of primers are falling because there is a more level playing field, allowing additional players to enter the market and sell comparable products at lower prices.
Ammoseek is showing 40-50 results of primers priced between 3 and 5 cents a piece.
Primer prices are coming down because of a comparatively healthy market environment. Greedflation drove up profit margins to the point where crafty individuals and companies found it worthwhile to go through the effort to become licensed to import and sell / distribute primers from new sources. The increased supply of products is driving prices down.
For canister powder that healthy market does not exist because of the 3 company oligopoly. Now just wait for Hodgdon to buy Shooters World (or god forbid Nammo) and it will only get worse.
Edit: Thanks to urbanrifleman for pointing out Alliant is distributed by Hodgdon